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Inside Story - Why is US president-elect Donald Trump against the TPP deal
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00:00:00.620 dumping the TPP the US president-elect 00:00:04.01000:00:04.020 vows to withdraw from the world's 00:00:06.49900:00:06.509 largest free trade agreement Donald 00:00:09.20000:00:09.210 Trump calls it a potential disaster 00:00:11.57000:00:11.580 so is he rewriting global trade rules 00:00:14.48000:00:14.490 and is it a sign of increasing 00:00:16.76000:00:16.770 protectionism this is inside story 00:00:35.60000:00:35.610 hello and welcome to the program I'm 00:00:37.88900:00:37.899 Martine Dennis now Donald Trump is not 00:00:40.17000:00:40.180 in office yet but he's already announced 00:00:42.03000:00:42.040 what he will do on his first day in the 00:00:43.95000:00:43.960 White House withdraw the u.s. from the 00:00:46.08000:00:46.090 long awaited trans-pacific partnership 00:00:48.11900:00:48.129 agreement or TPP now this is one of the 00:00:51.39000:00:51.400 main pledges he made during this year's 00:00:53.64000:00:53.650 bitterly fought campaign the deal brings 00:00:56.39900:00:56.409 together some of the world's biggest 00:00:57.81000:00:57.820 economies in the hope of creating a 00:01:00.42000:01:00.430 single market but what happens if the 00:01:02.61000:01:02.620 u.s. pulls out we've got lots to get 00:01:05.07000:01:05.080 onto with our guest but first this 00:01:07.08000:01:07.090 reporter and Rob Mathison defying 00:01:11.94000:01:11.950 convention yet again president-elect 00:01:14.24900:01:14.259 Donald Trump bypasses the press and uses 00:01:17.27900:01:17.289 a facebook video to say he'll pull the 00:01:19.49900:01:19.509 u.s. out of the world's largest trade 00:01:21.69000:01:21.700 deal known as the TPP I am going to 00:01:24.48000:01:24.490 issue our notification of intent to 00:01:26.91000:01:26.920 withdraw from the trans-pacific 00:01:28.49900:01:28.509 partnership a potential disaster for our 00:01:31.56000:01:31.570 country instead we will negotiate fair 00:01:34.64900:01:34.659 bilateral trade deals that bring jobs 00:01:36.87000:01:36.880 and industry back on to American shores 00:01:39.17900:01:39.189 it was one of Trump's main election 00:01:42.09000:01:42.100 pledges to ditch a deal that has been at 00:01:44.39900:01:44.409 the heart of the Obama administration 00:01:46.49000:01:46.500 now the leader of one of the other 00:01:48.63000:01:48.640 eleven countries which signed up to it 00:01:50.58000:01:50.590 says the trans-pacific deal could be 00:01:52.85900:01:52.869 dead TPP is meaningless without the 00:01:58.64900:01:58.659 United States it is for the same reason 00:02:01.08000:02:01.090 that the renegotiation is impossible 00:02:03.09000:02:03.100 this would disturb the fundamental 00:02:05.10000:02:05.110 balance of the benefits the deal has 00:02:07.95000:02:07.960 taken seven years to negotiate if it's 00:02:10.71000:02:10.720 implemented it would create a huge 00:02:12.63000:02:12.640 single market similar to the EU members 00:02:16.28900:02:16.299 would agree to common wolves aimed at 00:02:18.18000:02:18.190 making trade easier between them such as 00:02:20.67000:02:20.680 transparency when doing deals 00:02:22.43000:02:22.440 particularly those involving governments 00:02:24.78000:02:24.790 and working to cut unfair competition 00:02:26.97000:02:26.980 and increase copyright controls 00:02:31.39000:02:31.400 those who sign up would also reduce or 00:02:34.46000:02:34.470 remove taxes on imports between member 00:02:36.95000:02:36.960 countries 18,000 tariffs and all US 00:02:40.22000:02:40.230 manufactured goods and almost all US 00:02:42.74000:02:42.750 farm products would go but critics say 00:02:48.41000:02:48.420 the fine print of the deals been 00:02:49.94000:02:49.950 shrouded in secrecy they say it allows 00:02:52.55000:02:52.560 big corporations too much control over 00:02:54.89000:02:54.900 worldwide trade and that many of the 00:02:57.26000:02:57.270 common rules in the TPP are already 00:02:59.63000:02:59.640 being covered by existing worldwide 00:03:01.82000:03:01.830 trade legislation some of those who 00:03:04.76000:03:04.770 didn't sign up which includes China and 00:03:06.98000:03:06.990 Russia believe countries may have been 00:03:09.38000:03:09.390 isolated so you Sliema curcumin given 00:03:13.34000:03:13.350 orally 8na if we want to affect the 00:03:15.59000:03:15.600 processes of the world economy then 00:03:17.60000:03:17.610 closed alliances such as the 00:03:19.28000:03:19.290 trans-pacific partnership should not be 00:03:21.44000:03:21.450 created if this happens then this will 00:03:23.81000:03:23.820 not be good neither to the development 00:03:26.00000:03:26.010 of world trade nor to the world economy 00:03:28.40000:03:28.410 in general Trump is determined to pull 00:03:33.38000:03:33.390 the u.s. out of the trans-pacific 00:03:34.88000:03:34.890 partnership agreement 7 years of 00:03:37.43000:03:37.440 negotiations may have to be unpicked and 00:03:39.77000:03:39.780 it seems no one really knows what will 00:03:42.77000:03:42.780 happen next 00:03:43.61000:03:43.620 Rob Matheson for Inside Story 00:03:50.19000:03:50.200 all right time to introduce our guests 00:03:52.69000:03:52.700 now in Singapore we have Malcolm cook a 00:03:54.52000:03:54.530 senior fellow at the Institute of 00:03:56.29000:03:56.300 Southeast Asian Studies and a specialist 00:03:58.63000:03:58.640 on the political economy of East Asia in 00:04:00.72900:04:00.739 London we have Nick Deardon Director of 00:04:03.13000:04:03.140 Global justice now which campaigns on 00:04:05.55900:04:05.569 issues of global justice and development 00:04:07.60000:04:07.610 in the global south joining us on skype 00:04:09.69900:04:09.709 from Busan in South Korea we have Robert 00:04:12.43000:04:12.440 Kelley professor of international 00:04:14.19900:04:14.209 relations at Busan National University 00:04:16.47900:04:16.489 welcome to you or can I start with you 00:04:18.37000:04:18.380 Malcolm if President Trump the future 00:04:22.12000:04:22.130 President Trump actually is true to his 00:04:24.28000:04:24.290 word and pulls the u.s. out of the TPP 00:04:27.90900:04:27.919 agreement is that it is that game off 00:04:30.25000:04:30.260 well as the TPP is presently negotiated 00:04:34.75000:04:34.760 death because countries accounting for 00:04:37.21000:04:37.220 85% of the total GDP of the 12 countries 00:04:40.51000:04:40.520 have to ratify the TPP for it to become 00:04:43.81000:04:43.820 active and the United States and Japan 00:04:46.18000:04:46.190 by themselves or more than 15% so if the 00:04:50.05000:04:50.060 u.s. does pull out of the TPP the TPP 00:04:53.14000:04:53.150 signed last year is effectively dead but 00:04:57.15900:04:57.169 couldn't the remaining members of the 00:05:00.55000:05:00.560 remaining 11 members couldn't a minimum 00:05:04.21000:05:04.220 of six of them with a volume of trade 00:05:06.88000:05:06.890 amounting to 85 percent of the overall 00:05:10.29000:05:10.300 bloc's trade could they not rescue could 00:05:14.83000:05:14.840 they not salvage the deal if indeed they 00:05:16.93000:05:16.940 really wanted to there was a meeting at 00:05:19.81000:05:19.820 the APEC summit in Peru just last 00:05:22.24000:05:22.250 weekend among the TPP signatories that 00:05:24.73000:05:24.740 aren't planning to pull out and they're 00:05:26.40900:05:26.419 talking already about renegotiating that 00:05:29.14000:05:29.150 single clause to remove the 85 percent 00:05:32.26000:05:32.270 requirement so there could be a TPP 2.0 00:05:37.24000:05:37.250 but many of the things as noted by a 00:05:39.43000:05:39.440 reporter negotiated then the TPP are 00:05:42.60000:05:42.610 basically driven by US interests so the 00:05:45.96900:05:45.979 countries that signed up to the TPP many 00:05:48.94000:05:48.950 of them signed up for things that they 00:05:50.80000:05:50.810 wouldn't have signed up for if the 00:05:52.81000:05:52.820 United States wasn't a negotiating 00:05:54.73000:05:54.740 member so it's hard to see how the 00:05:56.95000:05:56.960 present TPP 00:05:58.48000:05:58.490 could survive at Donald Trump's threat 00:06:01.48000:06:01.490 okay Robert in Busan in South Korea the 00:06:06.21900:06:06.229 South Koreans are not signed up to TPP 00:06:08.71000:06:08.720 how does it look from there is this the 00:06:11.40900:06:11.419 are they rather happy that they didn't 00:06:13.39000:06:13.400 get involved in this or is there is 00:06:14.89000:06:14.900 there some inclination to join an 00:06:18.04000:06:18.050 alternative larger trade pact hey thanks 00:06:22.68900:06:22.699 for having me um I don't think the South 00:06:24.58000:06:24.590 Koreans were that worried about it this 00:06:26.11000:06:26.120 much a good deal South Korea already has 00:06:29.08000:06:29.090 a direct bilateral free trade agreement 00:06:31.89900:06:31.909 with the United States and one with the 00:06:33.58000:06:33.590 European Union those are two of its 00:06:35.55900:06:35.569 biggest markets its other two big 00:06:36.99900:06:37.009 markets are Japan and China and it's 00:06:39.90900:06:39.919 been working on trying to hammer out 00:06:41.74000:06:41.750 trade deals with them you know if you 00:06:43.96000:06:43.970 look at some of the other members of TPP 00:06:45.33900:06:45.349 it includes places like Vietnam and Peru 00:06:47.11000:06:47.120 and Malaysia those are small markets for 00:06:49.65900:06:49.669 the South Koreans I do think there's a 00:06:51.96900:06:51.979 security element to the trans-pacific 00:06:53.74000:06:53.750 partnership that the South Koreans would 00:06:55.39000:06:55.400 like to see which is that the 00:06:56.89000:06:56.900 trans-pacific partnership the TPP 00:06:58.62000:06:58.630 undergirds the American pivot to Asia 00:07:01.12000:07:01.130 which is important for the security of 00:07:03.01000:07:03.020 places like Japan and South Korea and 00:07:04.74900:07:04.759 Taiwan I would imagine that all of their 00:07:06.61000:07:06.620 political elites are a little bit upset 00:07:08.11000:07:08.120 that this will go by the board because 00:07:09.90900:07:09.919 it would thicken the American presence 00:07:12.07000:07:12.080 out here but you know Trump's just he 00:07:15.52000:07:15.530 just doesn't want okay Nick in London 00:07:18.45900:07:18.469 it's not just a matter of traders as 00:07:20.77000:07:20.780 Robert alluded to is it with trade comes 00:07:23.98000:07:23.990 influence is the u.s. if indeed this 00:07:26.37900:07:26.389 comes through is the u.s. giving up 00:07:28.26000:07:28.270 influence in the Pacific region I don't 00:07:32.98000:07:32.990 think so I think I mean we need to wait 00:07:35.11000:07:35.120 and see but I think that Trump's 00:07:36.52000:07:36.530 strategy isn't an anti trade strategy or 00:07:38.70900:07:38.719 an anti business strategy in fact in 00:07:40.36000:07:40.370 some ways I think he's going to be 00:07:41.62000:07:41.630 extremely helpful especially to the most 00:07:44.14000:07:44.150 reckless is and reckless and damaging 00:07:45.64000:07:45.650 businesses the fossil fuel industry the 00:07:47.64900:07:47.659 financial industry big pharmaceuticals 00:07:49.42000:07:49.430 and so on if anything I would say he 00:07:51.85000:07:51.860 doesn't believe this deal to be far 00:07:53.95000:07:53.960 enough in the interests of those big 00:07:55.80900:07:55.819 corporations which is something that 00:07:57.33900:07:57.349 most of us who've been campaigning 00:07:58.77900:07:58.789 against this do regard as pretty 00:08:01.12000:08:01.130 fanciful really and but I do think that 00:08:03.37000:08:03.380 it's important to remember that although 00:08:04.93000:08:04.940 Trump has said that he will withdraw 00:08:07.51000:08:07.520 from TPP on the first day I don't think 00:08:09.79000:08:09.800 we have Trump to 00:08:11.60000:08:11.610 thank for the defeat of this treaty I 00:08:13.07000:08:13.080 think we've got many many hundreds of 00:08:15.43900:08:15.449 thousands of grassroots activists who've 00:08:17.08900:08:17.099 been campaigning against this treaty for 00:08:18.95000:08:18.960 the last two three four years now before 00:08:21.83000:08:21.840 Donald Trump had even heard about okay 00:08:23.54000:08:23.550 are the ones that have defeated it Nick 00:08:25.49000:08:25.500 I'd like to come to that a little bit 00:08:27.05000:08:27.060 later on in the program 00:08:28.12900:08:28.139 in the meantime Malcolm can we just find 00:08:30.05000:08:30.060 out who were the potential beneficiaries 00:08:33.31900:08:33.329 of the TPP and who perhaps were the 00:08:36.82900:08:36.839 biggest losers I guess if it were to go 00:08:40.21900:08:40.229 through and it's still not dead Japan 00:08:43.06900:08:43.079 would probably be the biggest winner cuz 00:08:44.87000:08:44.880 it doesn't have a bilateral free trade 00:08:46.61000:08:46.620 agreement with the United States its 00:08:49.04000:08:49.050 second largest trading partner in Japan 00:08:51.07900:08:51.089 is still the third largest economy in 00:08:53.63000:08:53.640 the world so Japan being part of the TPP 00:08:56.31900:08:56.329 changed that as well if you look at 00:08:58.73000:08:58.740 countries that might lose the most in 00:09:00.80000:09:00.810 relative terms Vietnam definitely was 00:09:03.62000:09:03.630 seen to be the big winner it's the 00:09:05.68000:09:05.690 poorest member of the TPP 12 and many 00:09:09.94900:09:09.959 thought that it would get foreign direct 00:09:11.81000:09:11.820 investment particularly in clothing and 00:09:14.06000:09:14.070 apparel and auto parts that would have 00:09:16.43000:09:16.440 traditionally gone to Thailand and other 00:09:18.62000:09:18.630 countries and Malaysia as mentioned by 00:09:21.35000:09:21.360 Robert that doesn't have a bilateral 00:09:23.60000:09:23.610 free trade agreement with the United 00:09:25.10000:09:25.110 States either it tried to negotiate one 00:09:27.80000:09:27.810 and that failed so those are probably 00:09:30.01900:09:30.029 the three countries that were the 00:09:32.99000:09:33.000 strongest supporters in Asia of the TPP 00:09:35.18000:09:35.190 and will be the saddest to see it go by 00:09:38.38900:09:38.399 Singapore also but more for the 00:09:40.90000:09:40.910 strategic side that Robert mentioned the 00:09:43.43000:09:43.440 Singapore Prime Minister lectured 00:09:46.34000:09:46.350 President Obama in public in the United 00:09:48.59000:09:48.600 States about the importance of the 00:09:50.54000:09:50.550 United States ratifying the TPP for the 00:09:53.81000:09:53.820 United States strategic position in Asia 00:09:56.50900:09:56.519 I think that message is still there 00:09:59.75000:09:59.760 today 00:10:00.43900:10:00.449 and it looks like the United States will 00:10:02.26900:10:02.279 walk away from it so those are the four 00:10:04.57900:10:04.589 Singapore Malaysia Vietnam and Japan for 00:10:08.44900:10:08.459 four different reasons 00:10:09.68000:10:09.690 all right Robert I'll come to you and I 00:10:11.84000:10:11.850 know that you're an American I've heard 00:10:13.51900:10:13.529 that you're from Cleveland and what 00:10:15.65000:10:15.660 about America what about American 00:10:17.78000:10:17.790 companies American companies stood to 00:10:19.55000:10:19.560 gain significantly as well car 00:10:22.40000:10:22.410 manufacturers for instance they would 00:10:24.53000:10:24.540 have had 00:10:25.18900:10:25.199 direct access into a place like Vietnam 00:10:27.76900:10:27.779 which currently seriously imposes 00:10:30.53000:10:30.540 seriously high tariffs on American car 00:10:32.92900:10:32.939 imports and that must obviously be 00:10:35.26900:10:35.279 something that's that he has thought 00:10:37.48900:10:37.499 about and must have assimilated into his 00:10:39.79900:10:39.809 plan he would be a net good for all the 00:10:45.19900:10:45.209 participants I broadly think that that 00:10:47.15000:10:47.160 free trade is a good thing lowers prices 00:10:49.51900:10:49.529 and improves quality of goods things 00:10:50.92900:10:50.939 like that particularly you know you 00:10:53.03000:10:53.040 mentioned sort of Cleveland in the 00:10:54.10900:10:54.119 Midwest I do think that's what Donald 00:10:55.81900:10:55.829 Trump was probably taking his cue from 00:10:57.22900:10:57.239 that is to say that the so-called blue 00:10:59.35900:10:59.369 wall that Donald Trump penetrated to 00:11:01.48900:11:01.499 defeat Hillary Clinton was the Midwest 00:11:03.47000:11:03.480 those places where I'm done from there 00:11:05.74900:11:05.759 those places have all suffered 00:11:07.06900:11:07.079 significantly under globalization from 00:11:09.65000:11:09.660 foreign import competition particularly 00:11:11.03000:11:11.040 in manufacturing those jobs have left 00:11:12.67900:11:12.689 Donald Trump promised to bring them back 00:11:14.84000:11:14.850 as many presidents have before they do 00:11:16.69900:11:16.709 not come back but that message resonates 00:11:19.46000:11:19.470 and if Donald Trump wants to get 00:11:20.72000:11:20.730 reelected in four years he's going to 00:11:22.24900:11:22.259 need those votes again he very much 00:11:24.10900:11:24.119 appealed to the white working-class the 00:11:25.87900:11:25.889 United States you very much appeal to 00:11:27.37900:11:27.389 the Nostalgia many Americans have for 00:11:29.78000:11:29.790 manufacturing and the production of soar 00:11:31.75900:11:31.769 tangible items and the belief is that 00:11:34.81900:11:34.829 places you know in Donald Trump's mind 00:11:36.88900:11:36.899 the belief is that places like Malaysia 00:11:38.15000:11:38.160 and Japan cheat on these things Trump 00:11:40.48900:11:40.499 has repeatedly you know Trump from 00:11:42.10900:11:42.119 taking this stuff for 30 years and I 00:11:43.75900:11:43.769 think that's I think that's the 00:11:44.90000:11:44.910 political calculation behind this I 00:11:46.72900:11:46.739 don't actually think that the Trump 00:11:48.25900:11:48.269 administration is thinking about the 00:11:49.85000:11:49.860 opening of markets in Southeast Asia for 00:11:51.79900:11:51.809 American corporations I think he's 00:11:53.44900:11:53.459 thinking about voters and laborers all 00:11:57.13900:11:57.149 right Nick I'm also part of mr. Trump's 00:12:00.07900:12:00.089 plan is is he said establishing or 00:12:02.84000:12:02.850 negotiating bilateral trade deals how 00:12:05.15000:12:05.160 easy is that going to be given given the 00:12:08.29900:12:08.309 world order at the moment which seems to 00:12:09.88900:12:09.899 be made up with more and more 00:12:10.93900:12:10.949 multilateral deals that's absolutely 00:12:14.74900:12:14.759 true but if the multilateral deal isn't 00:12:16.40000:12:16.410 on the table then many countries may 00:12:17.84000:12:17.850 take a bilateral deal because they 00:12:19.36900:12:19.379 prefer that to nothing and I think one 00:12:22.06900:12:22.079 of the worries about bilateral deals I 00:12:23.86900:12:23.879 mean all of this all of multilateral or 00:12:25.69900:12:25.709 bilateral it all depends on how you 00:12:26.98900:12:26.999 actually negotiate it but of course 00:12:28.72900:12:28.739 there is the possibility that a 00:12:30.16900:12:30.179 bilateral deal could be even worse for a 00:12:32.72000:12:32.730 poorer more developing country because 00:12:34.63900:12:34.649 they're going to have far less ability 00:12:35.96000:12:35.970 to stand up to the might of the US if 00:12:38.41900:12:38.429 that's 00:12:38.81000:12:38.820 the only country that they're 00:12:40.10000:12:40.110 negotiating with all right now as Nick 00:12:43.55000:12:43.560 mentioned there's been a lot of public 00:12:46.52000:12:46.530 disaffection with these kinds of big 00:12:48.74000:12:48.750 deals it's not just the TPP that's 00:12:50.63000:12:50.640 facing opposition there seems to be a 00:12:52.79000:12:52.800 global growing public resentment over 00:12:55.16000:12:55.170 these big multinational trade deals some 00:12:57.68000:12:57.690 of them are often conducted in secret 00:13:01.04000:13:01.050 and made without citizen input this is 00:13:03.83000:13:03.840 one of the the big complaints deals 00:13:06.26000:13:06.270 including the North American Free Trade 00:13:08.12000:13:08.130 Agreement NAFTA and the transatlantic 00:13:10.28000:13:10.290 trade and investment partnership TTIP 00:13:12.92000:13:12.930 are seen by some as being opposed to or 00:13:15.89000:13:15.900 undermining the rights of workers and 00:13:18.85000:13:18.860 some including Donald Trump say 00:13:21.05000:13:21.060 international trade deals actually 00:13:23.03000:13:23.040 killed jobs at home so Nick can I come 00:13:25.70000:13:25.710 back to you and try and get some 00:13:27.50000:13:27.510 explanation as to why there seems to be 00:13:29.18000:13:29.190 this growing tide of public anger in 00:13:32.57000:13:32.580 many countries against these 00:13:34.13000:13:34.140 multilateral trade deal secrecy is one 00:13:36.80000:13:36.810 of the issues that they raised secrecy 00:13:40.55000:13:40.560 is a huge thing so with the multilateral 00:13:42.02000:13:42.030 trade deals TPP and TTIP and so on 00:13:44.12000:13:44.130 there's been very little public 00:13:46.25000:13:46.260 information there's been very little in 00:13:48.05000:13:48.060 our country very little parliamentary 00:13:49.43000:13:49.440 scrutiny of TTIP or cita the deal is 00:13:51.86000:13:51.870 being done with Canada in the European 00:13:53.54000:13:53.550 Union and this is huge because look when 00:13:56.09000:13:56.100 we're talking about these trade deals 00:13:57.14000:13:57.150 we're not just talking about tariffs 00:13:58.88000:13:58.890 packages most people think of trade 00:14:00.50000:14:00.510 deals as we try and reduce tariffs on 00:14:02.21000:14:02.220 both sides so that Goods can flow more 00:14:03.95000:14:03.960 easily and services can flow more easily 00:14:05.78000:14:05.790 in and out of countries but when it 00:14:07.49000:14:07.500 comes to the TPP we're actually looking 00:14:09.47000:14:09.480 at non what are called non-tariff 00:14:11.21000:14:11.220 barriers and that is regulation 00:14:13.46000:14:13.470 essentially that that goes to the heart 00:14:15.62000:14:15.630 of whether a government is able to enact 00:14:17.57000:14:17.580 laws without being challenged by big 00:14:19.88000:14:19.890 business over food quality standards for 00:14:22.31000:14:22.320 example over how we should run public 00:14:24.11000:14:24.120 services so the difference with the TPP 00:14:26.63000:14:26.640 I think and past trade deals is it goes 00:14:28.67000:14:28.680 really to the heart of our democracy our 00:14:30.71000:14:30.720 governments able anymore to enact laws 00:14:34.22000:14:34.230 in a way that won't be challenged by big 00:14:37.70000:14:37.710 investors because the big investors say 00:14:39.50000:14:39.510 well no sorry you're putting cigarettes 00:14:41.12000:14:41.130 in plain packaging that damages my 00:14:43.01000:14:43.020 profits and it seems increasingly to 00:14:45.41000:14:45.420 people that with these big trade 00:14:46.70000:14:46.710 packages nothing is more important than 00:14:48.89000:14:48.900 the right to suppose it right to make a 00:14:50.54000:14:50.550 profit it seems to come above 00:14:52.28000:14:52.290 our human rights our ability to fight 00:14:54.01900:14:54.029 climate change our ability to provide 00:14:55.69900:14:55.709 affordable medicines to people in our 00:14:58.30900:14:58.319 society and so on and that'sa worry 00:15:00.59000:15:00.600 Robert isn't it the the worry seems to 00:15:03.67900:15:03.689 be that these big multilateral trade 00:15:05.56900:15:05.579 deals actually empower the big companies 00:15:08.62900:15:08.639 and reduce the influence of individual 00:15:12.04900:15:12.059 governments the sovereignty of a 00:15:13.30900:15:13.319 particular country and that of course 00:15:14.96000:15:14.970 impacts upon as Nick was saying the 00:15:17.62900:15:17.639 lives the ordinary lives of people yeah 00:15:20.62900:15:20.639 I think that's correct I mean we live in 00:15:22.46000:15:22.470 a democratic age most of the 00:15:24.13900:15:24.149 participants in the TPP are democratic 00:15:25.99900:15:26.009 or moving in that direction the 00:15:28.34000:15:28.350 transparency of trade deals the lack of 00:15:30.79900:15:30.809 transparency is a genuine problem people 00:15:33.16900:15:33.179 expect information to that I would only 00:15:36.16900:15:36.179 say that these trade deals are often 00:15:37.72900:15:37.739 inordinately complex the deal between 00:15:40.03900:15:40.049 Korea and the United States for example 00:15:41.77900:15:41.789 which I know is 1,100 pages 00:15:44.02900:15:44.039 I imagine the deal the TPP deal is two 00:15:46.87900:15:46.889 or three times that right now if you 00:15:48.73900:15:48.749 open these things up for conversation 00:15:49.96900:15:49.979 for debate at every single point you'll 00:15:52.27900:15:52.289 simply never have trade deals I mean 00:15:53.86900:15:53.879 some of this stuff simply has to be 00:15:54.97900:15:54.989 worked out by the lawyers and the 00:15:56.09000:15:56.100 accounts this is actually how 00:15:57.52900:15:57.539 parliamentary procedure works in many 00:15:59.44900:15:59.459 democracies in the United States 00:16:00.97900:16:00.989 congressmen very rarely read the entire 00:16:03.01900:16:03.029 piece of legislation that gets voted on 00:16:04.66900:16:04.679 I mean you could sort of insist on 00:16:06.37900:16:06.389 ripping these things open and debating 00:16:07.75900:16:07.769 on piece by piece but then and the 00:16:09.19900:16:09.209 legislative process in many states 00:16:10.57900:16:10.589 wouldn't it simply wouldn't occur um I 00:16:13.24900:16:13.259 do share the concern about sort of the 00:16:14.74900:16:14.759 influence with large corporations I 00:16:16.03900:16:16.049 would dispute the notion that states are 00:16:17.47900:16:17.489 somehow giving up their ability to 00:16:19.12900:16:19.139 actually pursue regulation first of all 00:16:20.98900:16:20.999 it's not really clear to me that 00:16:21.97900:16:21.989 harmonization of regulation means the 00:16:23.77900:16:23.789 rollback of regulation I do think 00:16:25.84900:16:25.859 there's a difference 00:16:27.01900:16:27.029 second there are interstate dispute 00:16:29.09000:16:29.100 mechanisms for these things where states 00:16:30.40900:16:30.419 can bring their concerns and complaints 00:16:32.05900:16:32.069 and decisions can be sort of hammered 00:16:33.88900:16:33.899 out the whole point is to sort of create 00:16:35.77900:16:35.789 common standards so the movement of 00:16:37.60900:16:37.619 goods and services is easier it's not 00:16:39.71000:16:39.720 necessarily to throw regulatory 00:16:42.04900:16:42.059 standards to corporations it's to 00:16:43.46000:16:43.470 generate sort of simplicity between 00:16:46.60900:16:46.619 states so that so that goods and 00:16:49.00900:16:49.019 services can move and Malcolm so so 00:16:51.52900:16:51.539 Roberts saying that it shouldn't be 00:16:54.61900:16:54.629 these these kinds of deals shouldn't be 00:16:56.26900:16:56.279 viewed with quite so much suspicion but 00:16:58.12900:16:58.139 still they are do you think that opening 00:17:00.22900:17:00.239 them up to more scrutiny having more 00:17:03.49900:17:03.509 transparency would alleviate some of 00:17:05.72000:17:05.730 this public dissatisfaction that we've 00:17:07.64000:17:07.650 been witnessing in the past year alone 00:17:09.76000:17:09.770 it's probably worth noting even if 00:17:12.04900:17:12.059 Hillary Clinton had won she had said 00:17:14.09000:17:14.100 that she wouldn't sign the existing TPP 00:17:16.88000:17:16.890 either so there's certainly bipartisan 00:17:19.34000:17:19.350 in the United States and not only in the 00:17:21.14000:17:21.150 United States concerns but part of it 00:17:23.87000:17:23.880 goes back to the negotiations trade 00:17:25.78900:17:25.799 deals are often I'll give you something 00:17:28.49000:17:28.500 in return for getting something back 00:17:30.71000:17:30.720 from you that's why they're so long and 00:17:32.65900:17:32.669 complicated and as Robert noted if each 00:17:35.45000:17:35.460 of those stages of negotiation and 00:17:37.82000:17:37.830 giving and taking is open to a public 00:17:40.49000:17:40.500 process in each country then you 00:17:42.79900:17:42.809 probably wouldn't get any trade deals at 00:17:45.28900:17:45.299 all one reason that we're having 00:17:47.36000:17:47.370 regional trade deals or bilateral ones 00:17:50.00000:17:50.010 is the global WTO system is broken and 00:17:54.26000:17:54.270 isn't working anymore so countries are 00:17:56.75000:17:56.760 having to shift to less optimal in terms 00:17:59.81000:17:59.820 of size so I think if you want trade 00:18:03.23000:18:03.240 deals that deal with more than tariffs 00:18:06.46000:18:06.470 you're going to have to accept a level 00:18:08.96000:18:08.970 of transparency or not having them at 00:18:11.21000:18:11.220 all and Nick so it's been mentioned then 00:18:14.39000:18:14.400 that a significant part of these trade 00:18:17.72000:18:17.730 deals is the harmonization of standards 00:18:19.31000:18:19.320 at standards in terms of food quality 00:18:23.57000:18:23.580 for instance Environmental Protection 00:18:26.45000:18:26.460 for instance does it always have to fall 00:18:28.66900:18:28.679 to the lowest common denominator or can 00:18:30.65000:18:30.660 it have a positive side I'm thinking 00:18:32.48000:18:32.490 perhaps of of developing countries 00:18:35.84000:18:35.850 joining in with more developed countries 00:18:38.12000:18:38.130 and thereby having to adopt a minimum 00:18:40.34000:18:40.350 wage for instance well maybe not a 00:18:43.88000:18:43.890 minimum wage but I take the point there 00:18:45.68000:18:45.690 that I think that a race to the top 00:18:47.72000:18:47.730 rather than a race to the bottom should 00:18:49.19000:18:49.200 be absolutely possible that we're not 00:18:50.65900:18:50.669 against trade and I think there were 00:18:52.82000:18:52.830 ways and ways of negotiating trade 00:18:54.65000:18:54.660 agreements and there have been examples 00:18:55.82000:18:55.830 from Latin America too frankly the 00:18:58.25000:18:58.260 single market in the European Union 00:18:59.87000:18:59.880 where standards have increased as a 00:19:01.82000:19:01.830 result of trade agreements I think one 00:19:04.01000:19:04.020 of the problems with the type of 00:19:05.33000:19:05.340 multilateral trade agreements on the 00:19:06.65000:19:06.660 table at the moment is they seem to be 00:19:09.03900:19:09.049 pointed in the opposite direction 00:19:10.76000:19:10.770 towards further deregulation and when 00:19:13.13000:19:13.140 you look at things like TPP it's not 00:19:14.78000:19:14.790 difficult to see why that is because big 00:19:17.24000:19:17.250 business is there 00:19:18.60000:19:18.610 in many in many cases whispering in the 00:19:20.88000:19:20.890 ears of the politicians at the 00:19:21.90000:19:21.910 negotiating table saying we don't want 00:19:24.48000:19:24.490 you know anti-gm provisions in the 00:19:26.37000:19:26.380 european union and so on and then they 00:19:28.89000:19:28.900 have this corporate court system which 00:19:31.16900:19:31.179 allows big business and big investors 00:19:33.21000:19:33.220 the right to a parallel legal tract so 00:19:35.66900:19:35.679 they can sue governments for doing 00:19:37.08000:19:37.090 things which essentially they don't 00:19:38.61000:19:38.620 really like we as ordinary individuals 00:19:41.03900:19:41.049 ordinary citizens don't get the ability 00:19:42.72000:19:42.730 to access those kind of legal channels 00:19:44.82000:19:44.830 so I think it's not really surprising 00:19:46.86000:19:46.870 that people are suspicious of the deals 00:19:48.93000:19:48.940 that are on the table at the moment but 00:19:50.40000:19:50.410 I mean I absolutely take the point that 00:19:51.90000:19:51.910 doesn't mean we need to stop trading it 00:19:53.76000:19:53.770 means we need a fundamental rethink of 00:19:55.74000:19:55.750 how we negotiate trade deals like this 00:19:57.48000:19:57.490 and that's really urgent because you 00:19:59.58000:19:59.590 know the disaffection that people have 00:20:01.14000:20:01.150 felt with these kind of agreements is 00:20:02.46000:20:02.470 exactly what led to the election of 00:20:04.71000:20:04.720 someone as fanatical as Donald Trump 00:20:07.07000:20:07.080 Robert I'm just wondering whether you 00:20:10.14000:20:10.150 think that Donald Trump's election and 00:20:14.28000:20:14.290 his decision to pull out of DPP TPP and 00:20:17.53900:20:17.549 couple that with the brexit vote from a 00:20:20.49000:20:20.500 few months ago I'm just wondering if 00:20:21.90000:20:21.910 this is changing the direction of travel 00:20:23.46000:20:23.470 for international business international 00:20:26.43000:20:26.440 trade yeah I do think so I mean a lot of 00:20:30.60000:20:30.610 will depend on what Trump does 00:20:31.86000:20:31.870 particularly I mean the British economy 00:20:33.39000:20:33.400 is substantially smaller than the 00:20:34.40900:20:34.419 American economy so Trump will really 00:20:36.00000:20:36.010 set a lot of the tone if he really goes 00:20:39.12000:20:39.130 the protectionist route um I would say 00:20:41.76000:20:41.770 though that I don't think you probably 00:20:42.87000:20:42.880 will because once you actually start 00:20:45.18000:20:45.190 throwing up 30 and 40 percent tariffs 00:20:47.01000:20:47.020 against goods from Mexico or China or 00:20:48.53900:20:48.549 whatever he's suggesting um those those 00:20:51.00000:20:51.010 will those tariffs will feed through 00:20:52.56000:20:52.570 into consumer prices you know if the 00:20:55.14000:20:55.150 wall if Trump's voters were through the 00:20:57.41900:20:57.429 Walmart demographic sort of downscale 00:20:59.46000:20:59.470 working-class whites these are people 00:21:01.47000:21:01.480 who actually rely on cheap imports from 00:21:03.29900:21:03.309 Asia and Trump just hasn't mentioned 00:21:05.13000:21:05.140 right Trump is focusing on the losses in 00:21:08.10000:21:08.110 the labor market people who used to work 00:21:09.63000:21:09.640 for manufacturing companies that have 00:21:11.70000:21:11.710 since been turned into jobs been 00:21:13.47000:21:13.480 robotized or sent to age or something 00:21:15.21000:21:15.220 like that but what he hasn't mentioned I 00:21:16.95000:21:16.960 think well we often miss in the trade 00:21:18.65900:21:18.669 discussion is that people are also 00:21:20.13000:21:20.140 consumers and then all this trade means 00:21:22.23000:21:22.240 that all sorts of goods are suddenly 00:21:23.97000:21:23.980 cheaper and of much better quality and 00:21:25.53000:21:25.540 if you start throwing up these carriers 00:21:27.18000:21:27.190 of Trump released if he pulls us out of 00:21:28.62000:21:28.630 the WTO for example like he's 00:21:30.24000:21:30.250 threatening I mean you can expect 00:21:31.68000:21:31.690 American pride 00:21:32.31000:21:32.320 to go up across the board can 15% right 00:21:35.27900:21:35.289 China 00:21:35.94000:21:35.950 I mean prices a Walmart about 20% or 00:21:37.86000:21:37.870 more and those who thought that will 00:21:39.36000:21:39.370 directly impact the bottom line from 00:21:41.22000:21:41.230 Trump's orders it is not clear to me at 00:21:43.08000:21:43.090 all that heavy protectionism is actually 00:21:44.99900:21:45.009 in the interest of the white working 00:21:46.56000:21:46.570 class or the working class generally in 00:21:48.45000:21:48.460 the United States but you know if you go 00:21:50.00900:21:50.019 down that route and equals the WTO or 00:21:52.01900:21:52.029 NAFTA which is been around for 30 years 00:21:53.66900:21:53.679 or 25 years I'm that yeah that'll be a 00:21:56.12900:21:56.139 major fracture that that will change a 00:21:58.04900:21:58.059 lot and how does it look from Singapore 00:22:00.84000:22:00.850 Malcolm does it look as though there is 00:22:03.21000:22:03.220 a big change on the horizon with the 00:22:05.43000:22:05.440 election of Donald Trump in terms of 00:22:07.16900:22:07.179 trade yeah I think but I think in Asia 00:22:11.24900:22:11.259 it's this Essene largely as a Western 00:22:14.03900:22:14.049 phenomenon both the brexit vote and 00:22:16.36900:22:16.379 politics in Europe moving towards this 00:22:19.74000:22:19.750 kind of radical right and the u.s. 00:22:22.04900:22:22.059 decision election where Trump is now 00:22:24.77900:22:24.789 president-elect I think if you look at 00:22:27.14900:22:27.159 Asian countries they're very willing to 00:22:29.70000:22:29.710 pursue regional alternatives for trade 00:22:32.99900:22:33.009 liberalisation and investment 00:22:35.03900:22:35.049 liberalization that don't include the 00:22:37.35000:22:37.360 United States and many Asian countries 00:22:39.41900:22:39.429 do not face the same democratic 00:22:42.26900:22:42.279 pressures we've been talking about or 00:22:43.95000:22:43.960 the same sense even within their own 00:22:46.32000:22:46.330 populations that the economy is not 00:22:49.20000:22:49.210 doing them well so we could see that 00:22:52.04900:22:52.059 Asia powers ahead with trade agreements 00:22:54.81000:22:54.820 that don't include the United States or 00:22:57.09000:22:57.100 Europe and the United States and Europe 00:22:59.70000:22:59.710 are left behind because they face these 00:23:02.24900:23:02.259 pressures that aren't as visible in Asia 00:23:05.15900:23:05.169 at all if you look at the Asian members 00:23:08.49000:23:08.500 of the TPP the majority there is very 00:23:11.51900:23:11.529 little sign that any of those countries 00:23:13.79900:23:13.809 would face a problem ratifying the 00:23:16.68000:23:16.690 agreement gentlemen I have to thank you 00:23:19.83000:23:19.840 very much indeed 00:23:21.28900:23:21.299 Malcolm cook Nick Deardon and Robert 00:23:24.50900:23:24.519 Kelley thank you all very much and as 00:23:28.44000:23:28.450 ever thank you for watching the program 00:23:30.33000:23:30.340 now if you want to see the program again 00:23:32.15900:23:32.169 you can go to the website aljazeera.com 00:23:34.40900:23:34.419 if you want more discussion I'm sure 00:23:36.36000:23:36.370 that there are lots of comments or 00:23:37.68000:23:37.690 questions you'd like to ask on this 00:23:39.11900:23:39.129 particular issue that is absorbing so 00:23:41.78900:23:41.799 many people you can go to our Facebook 00:23:43.98000:23:43.990 page facebook.com for 00:23:46.31900:23:46.329 AJ inside story and of course there's 00:23:48.71900:23:48.729 always a Twittersphere our handle is at 00:23:50.96900:23:50.979 AJ inside story but for me Martine 00:23:53.93900:23:53.949 Dennis and the whole team here in Doha 00:23:55.82900:23:55.839 it's bye for now
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