One Potential Transition to 100% Renewable Energy (Technical Perspective)

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Language: en

00:00:05.120
hello and welcome to my video or my name
00:00:07.700 00:00:07.710 is Davis Connelly and I am an assistant
00:00:10.190 00:00:10.200 professor at Auburn University in
00:00:11.870 00:00:11.880 Copenhagen Denmark and today i'm
00:00:14.180 00:00:14.190 representing IDEO to you that outlines
00:00:16.910 00:00:16.920 how the existing energy system being can
00:00:19.130 00:00:19.140 be converted from being dependent on
00:00:21.320 00:00:21.330 fossil fuels to 100 percent renewable
00:00:23.960 00:00:23.970 energy without using excessive amounts
00:00:27.740 00:00:27.750 of bioenergy so I want to start by first
00:00:30.919 00:00:30.929 explaining what the existing energy
00:00:32.659 00:00:32.669 system looks like so that you can see
00:00:34.880 00:00:34.890 the characteristics that it has and how
00:00:37.190 00:00:37.200 they have to change over the next 40
00:00:39.619 00:00:39.629 years to neighbor to become 100%
00:00:41.990 00:00:42.000 renewable so we want to start by talking
00:00:45.110 00:00:45.120 about the type of demands that we have
00:00:46.850 00:00:46.860 in the energy system so today there's
00:00:50.389 00:00:50.399 three primary demands that we have from
00:00:54.110 00:00:54.120 energy first of all we have mobility our
00:00:57.080 00:00:57.090 transport that's one key demand that we
00:01:00.920 00:01:00.930 have for energy the other is electricity
00:01:06.250 00:01:06.260 and the final key demand is heat or
00:01:11.120 00:01:11.130 cooling these are the three types of
00:01:14.810 00:01:14.820 end-user demands that need to be met
00:01:17.390 00:01:17.400 with some form of energy today in order
00:01:20.690 00:01:20.700 to meet those different types of demands
00:01:22.609 00:01:22.619 we have different conversion
00:01:24.080 00:01:24.090 technologies and those conversion
00:01:29.690 00:01:29.700 technologies for example for electricity
00:01:31.730 00:01:31.740 one of the most the most common one for
00:01:33.980 00:01:33.990 electricity are power plants power
00:01:38.660 00:01:38.670 plants basically converts some form of
00:01:42.469 00:01:42.479 fuels into electricity so if we then
00:01:46.810 00:01:46.820 after the conversion technology we put
00:01:49.730 00:01:49.740 the resource then today we have some
00:01:55.789 00:01:55.799 form of fossil fuel being put into a
00:02:00.920 00:02:00.930 power plant which then converts the fuel
00:02:04.429 00:02:04.439 to electricity for the end-user if we
00:02:07.670 00:02:07.680 then look at the heating engine
00:02:09.359 00:02:09.369 and what happens in heat is that we have
00:02:12.180 00:02:12.190 some form of individual boiler so that
00:02:17.580 00:02:17.590 can be like an oil boiler or a gas
00:02:19.740 00:02:19.750 boiler usually so once again we put some
00:02:23.399 00:02:23.409 fossil fuel into an individual divider
00:02:25.979 00:02:25.989 and out of that we get some heat for the
00:02:29.069 00:02:29.079 end user for mobility it's usually a
00:02:32.160 00:02:32.170 combustion engine so that could be the
00:02:34.530 00:02:34.540 engine of a car or ship or an airplane
00:02:36.690 00:02:36.700 some form of combustion engine and
00:02:42.440 00:02:42.450 further those combustion engines it's
00:02:45.000 00:02:45.010 almost always oil and it can be gas but
00:02:48.809 00:02:48.819 it's almost always oil that's taken put
00:02:52.680 00:02:52.690 into a combustion engine and we use that
00:02:54.509 00:02:54.519 to provide some form of transport so I
00:02:57.869 00:02:57.879 hope that this breakdown of what the
00:03:00.210 00:03:00.220 energy system looks like today
00:03:01.849 00:03:01.859 illustrates immediately to you that the
00:03:04.890 00:03:04.900 energy system is actually a relatively
00:03:06.660 00:03:06.670 simple structure in terms of how fuel
00:03:10.349 00:03:10.359 goes from beginning to a need user
00:03:12.539 00:03:12.549 demand so what you can probably see
00:03:14.699 00:03:14.709 straight away here is that each of our
00:03:17.129 00:03:17.139 sectors is very isolated from one
00:03:19.559 00:03:19.569 another Jesus provided by individual
00:03:21.960 00:03:21.970 boilers and has very little connection
00:03:23.610 00:03:23.620 with the electricity sector electricity
00:03:25.860 00:03:25.870 is provided by power plants and
00:03:27.599 00:03:27.609 electricity is very diluted interaction
00:03:29.699 00:03:29.709 with the transport sector there is a
00:03:31.830 00:03:31.840 small bit of interaction here where
00:03:33.690 00:03:33.700 sometimes that tricity is used to
00:03:35.280 00:03:35.290 provide heating or cooling or for the
00:03:37.530 00:03:37.540 purposes of this diagram I'm just going
00:03:39.900 00:03:39.910 to leave it out so it doesn't become too
00:03:41.369 00:03:41.379 cluttered because the general principle
00:03:43.589 00:03:43.599 is that in almost all cases these are
00:03:46.110 00:03:46.120 very separate from one another another
00:03:48.990 00:03:49.000 key characteristic that I want you to
00:03:50.729 00:03:50.739 use to look at in this system is that
00:03:52.610 00:03:52.620 fossil fuels are the foundations for how
00:03:55.619 00:03:55.629 everything else is designed so if for
00:04:00.330 00:04:00.340 example we want some electricity we turn
00:04:03.479 00:04:03.489 on a power plant whenever the user
00:04:04.890 00:04:04.900 switches on that light for example and
00:04:07.050 00:04:07.060 in some fossil fuel is immediately
00:04:09.150 00:04:09.160 provided to produce more electricity
00:04:11.030 00:04:11.040 what that means is that this fossil fuel
00:04:14.729 00:04:14.739 is providing the rest of the energy
00:04:16.960 00:04:16.970 system with a lot of cheap stored energy
00:04:20.020 00:04:20.030 in other words all of the flexibility in
00:04:22.960 00:04:22.970 this energy system is coming from the
00:04:25.660 00:04:25.670 very large amounts of stored energy
00:04:27.550 00:04:27.560 contained in these fossil fuels so with
00:04:30.790 00:04:30.800 the transport sector there's a lot of
00:04:32.320 00:04:32.330 stored energy and oil in the power
00:04:34.240 00:04:34.250 plants at either coal or gas usually and
00:04:36.460 00:04:36.470 for individual boilers it can be cold
00:04:38.560 00:04:38.570 gas or been are primarily used for the
00:04:42.130 00:04:42.140 individual employers so in other words
00:04:44.170 00:04:44.180 because of all this stored energy and
00:04:46.390 00:04:46.400 the fossil fuels very little flexibility
00:04:49.660 00:04:49.670 exists under in the rest of the energy
00:04:51.760 00:04:51.770 system so for example when somebody
00:04:54.070 00:04:54.080 turns on the light
00:04:55.030 00:04:55.040 they never expect to have to wait for
00:04:57.460 00:04:57.470 some electricity before the light comes
00:04:59.110 00:04:59.120 on they expect to get immediately and
00:05:01.450 00:05:01.460 that's because of this flexibility that
00:05:03.550 00:05:03.560 the fossil fuels has provided us with
00:05:05.200 00:05:05.210 over the last 150 years so taking those
00:05:09.400 00:05:09.410 characteristics into account I'm going
00:05:11.980 00:05:11.990 to now start talking about how do we
00:05:13.540 00:05:13.550 transition away from being this type of
00:05:16.030 00:05:16.040 energy system to a 100% renewable energy
00:05:19.300 00:05:19.310 system so the first thing you can
00:05:21.580 00:05:21.590 probably guess is going to happen is I
00:05:23.500 00:05:23.510 have to get rid of these fossil fuels
00:05:25.870 00:05:25.880 now as I just mentioned fossil fuels are
00:05:29.830 00:05:29.840 the primary source of flexibility that
00:05:32.020 00:05:32.030 enables everything else to function so
00:05:34.210 00:05:34.220 smoothly in this energy system so we
00:05:36.969 00:05:36.979 have removed the fossil fuels my
00:05:38.920 00:05:38.930 flexibility is now gone and I have to
00:05:41.200 00:05:41.210 start replacing it with some new forms
00:05:43.810 00:05:43.820 of flexibility or new forms of human so
00:05:47.230 00:05:47.240 the first question that would be very
00:05:48.520 00:05:48.530 logical and that people often ask is is
00:05:51.280 00:05:51.290 there any direct replacement for the
00:05:53.530 00:05:53.540 fossil fuels that we can just use that
00:05:55.960 00:05:55.970 is sustainable and the one common thing
00:05:58.659 00:05:58.669 that's usually promoted is bioenergy and
00:06:02.260 00:06:02.270 this is a very good solution in many
00:06:05.950 00:06:05.960 ways bioenergy is very similar to fossil
00:06:09.760 00:06:09.770 fuels in the sense that coal can be
00:06:12.580 00:06:12.590 replaced by biomass gas can be replaced
00:06:15.219 00:06:15.229 by biogas and oil can be replaced by
00:06:18.159 00:06:18.169 biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol
00:06:20.620 00:06:20.630 which means that if we replace fossil
00:06:23.740 00:06:23.750 fuels with bioenergy then the job is
00:06:26.320 00:06:26.330 done we're now a 100 percent
00:06:28.000 00:06:28.010 and we can use all of the existing
00:06:30.520 00:06:30.530 infrastructure in the same way as we
00:06:32.410 00:06:32.420 used to have fossil fuels the big
00:06:35.590 00:06:35.600 problem however the reason that this
00:06:37.270 00:06:37.280 isn't possible is that there simply
00:06:39.400 00:06:39.410 isn't enough bio energy to simply
00:06:41.800 00:06:41.810 replace fossil fuels altogether there a
00:06:45.640 00:06:45.650 lot of it can be covered but if we want
00:06:47.620 00:06:47.630 to use the same amount of energy as we
00:06:50.590 00:06:50.600 do today in the future then there
00:06:52.870 00:06:52.880 wouldn't be enough land to grow or
00:06:54.730 00:06:54.740 develop all the bio energy we would need
00:06:56.620 00:06:56.630 without having severe effects on things
00:06:59.290 00:06:59.300 like food production and that means that
00:07:01.930 00:07:01.940 yes bioenergy can be part of the
00:07:03.790 00:07:03.800 solution but it definitely can't provide
00:07:06.160 00:07:06.170 all of the solution because we're
00:07:08.410 00:07:08.420 limited in the amount of bioenergy we
00:07:10.150 00:07:10.160 can use so then the next question is if
00:07:13.390 00:07:13.400 we have a limited amount of resources a
00:07:15.910 00:07:15.920 bit available can we start to make this
00:07:18.340 00:07:18.350 energy system much more efficient now
00:07:21.550 00:07:21.560 one obvious way we can do that is we can
00:07:23.860 00:07:23.870 reduce our demands here on this side so
00:07:26.590 00:07:26.600 we can reduce the amount of heat we use
00:07:28.330 00:07:28.340 we can reduce our electricity and
00:07:30.220 00:07:30.230 transport of use in the future it's
00:07:32.650 00:07:32.660 likely that we can have significant
00:07:34.450 00:07:34.460 reductions of up to about thirty or
00:07:36.130 00:07:36.140 forty percent in our heat demands we can
00:07:38.860 00:07:38.870 reduce our electricity demands made by
00:07:40.450 00:07:40.460 10 or 15 percent but our mobility is
00:07:43.480 00:07:43.490 surely going to increase in the
00:07:45.400 00:07:45.410 developed world especially as we go into
00:07:48.370 00:07:48.380 the future so there's definitely
00:07:50.110 00:07:50.120 potential here to reduce the demands but
00:07:52.720 00:07:52.730 definitely not enough to me still have a
00:07:55.120 00:07:55.130 sustainable amount of bio energy that we
00:07:57.190 00:07:57.200 need so let's say step number two is
00:08:00.330 00:08:00.340 reductions so we're going to have
00:08:03.130 00:08:03.140 reductions in heat we're going to have
00:08:05.890 00:08:05.900 reductions in electricity and we're
00:08:08.920 00:08:08.930 going to have reductions in mobility I
00:08:15.690 00:08:15.700 would call this more efficient rather
00:08:18.250 00:08:18.260 than reductions because we're probably
00:08:19.780 00:08:19.790 going to travel more but we can do with
00:08:21.820 00:08:21.830 in more efficient ways maybe by
00:08:23.380 00:08:23.390 increasing public transport and so on
00:08:25.360 00:08:25.370 but in any case we're making the system
00:08:28.350 00:08:28.360 more efficient and using our energy
00:08:31.210 00:08:31.220 better
00:08:31.909 00:08:31.919 the end user level when we do this now
00:08:34.610 00:08:34.620 we require less bio energy but as I said
00:08:36.620 00:08:36.630 it's still not enough we still need to
00:08:38.959 00:08:38.969 do other actions so let's start looking
00:08:40.969 00:08:40.979 now at how the conversion process can be
00:08:43.310 00:08:43.320 altered so that we use a sustainable
00:08:45.530 00:08:45.540 amount of bio energy and the first
00:08:47.660 00:08:47.670 simple step that can happen is that when
00:08:50.630 00:08:50.640 power plants produce electricity usually
00:08:53.269 00:08:53.279 about sixty percent of the energy is
00:08:55.610 00:08:55.620 wasted as heat and today in most
00:08:57.949 00:08:57.959 developed countries that heat is simply
00:09:00.139 00:09:00.149 put into a river or into a into the sea
00:09:02.720 00:09:02.730 and instead of putting out heat into the
00:09:05.210 00:09:05.220 river of the sea we can connect that
00:09:07.250 00:09:07.260 heat to the heating sector so that we
00:09:09.920 00:09:09.930 can make our overall system more
00:09:11.750 00:09:11.760 efficient so instead of using power
00:09:14.269 00:09:14.279 plants we can convert those power plants
00:09:16.639 00:09:16.649 in my step tree to something called
00:09:19.670 00:09:19.680 combined heat and power plant CHP plants
00:09:22.490 00:09:22.500 these CSP plants don't just produce
00:09:25.100 00:09:25.110 electricity they also produce heat for
00:09:27.920 00:09:27.930 the heating sector so we then have to
00:09:29.960 00:09:29.970 construct a district heating system
00:09:32.840 00:09:32.850 which is a pipe line of hot water that
00:09:36.230 00:09:36.240 connects the surplus heat from these
00:09:37.880 00:09:37.890 power plants to the end-user heat demand
00:09:40.630 00:09:40.640 this means that instead now of having
00:09:43.579 00:09:43.589 power plants that are forty percent
00:09:45.230 00:09:45.240 efficient there are now about 90 percent
00:09:47.750 00:09:47.760 efficient because we're using all this
00:09:49.639 00:09:49.649 waste heat to meet our end-users demands
00:09:53.199 00:09:53.209 so that means we've now made the system
00:09:55.490 00:09:55.500 more efficient by constructing this
00:09:57.680 00:09:57.690 district heating system the other very
00:10:00.410 00:10:00.420 important thing that we've done by
00:10:02.000 00:10:02.010 developing this piece of infrastructure
00:10:03.680 00:10:03.690 is we've opened up the possibility to
00:10:06.530 00:10:06.540 you use new resources so now that we
00:10:09.889 00:10:09.899 have this district heating system in
00:10:11.449 00:10:11.459 place we can then build large-scale
00:10:13.639 00:10:13.649 solar plants we can build some
00:10:16.069 00:10:16.079 geothermal heat plants and we can use
00:10:20.660 00:10:20.670 some surplus heat from industry our
00:10:22.730 00:10:22.740 waste incineration these are all new
00:10:27.829 00:10:27.839 sources of heat that can be utilized in
00:10:30.470 00:10:30.480 the energy system and this is very
00:10:32.600 00:10:32.610 important because using these
00:10:34.440 00:10:34.450 resources once again reduces the
00:10:37.260 00:10:37.270 pressure on my violators demand so I'm
00:10:40.350 00:10:40.360 now getting all of this new type of heat
00:10:42.420 00:10:42.430 into the end users demands so number
00:10:45.900 00:10:45.910 three is connecting the electricity and
00:10:48.150 00:10:48.160 heat sectors together via district
00:10:50.550 00:10:50.560 heating system which makes the system
00:10:52.500 00:10:52.510 more efficient and it opens up the
00:10:54.780 00:10:54.790 possibility to use some new resources
00:10:58.190 00:10:58.200 when I do this the pressure on the bio
00:11:01.260 00:11:01.270 energy we would be reduced but as I
00:11:04.230 00:11:04.240 mentioned earlier we're still not at a
00:11:06.180 00:11:06.190 low enough bio energy level to have a
00:11:08.490 00:11:08.500 sustainable amount so now we need to
00:11:10.950 00:11:10.960 introduce some new resources on top of
00:11:13.230 00:11:13.240 these and the new resources are now
00:11:15.690 00:11:15.700 going to add our wind and solar
00:11:19.070 00:11:19.080 electricity production so this is the
00:11:22.320 00:11:22.330 new type of resource that's going to
00:11:24.090 00:11:24.100 form the backbone of my energy system in
00:11:26.700 00:11:26.710 the future and these resources produce
00:11:29.540 00:11:29.550 electricity so I want to connect these
00:11:32.340 00:11:32.350 now to the electricity sector so these
00:11:36.600 00:11:36.610 new forms of electricity production can
00:11:40.080 00:11:40.090 reduce the need for bioenergy but they
00:11:42.390 00:11:42.400 come with one significant drawback and
00:11:44.460 00:11:44.470 that's their intermittency so Weidman
00:11:47.130 00:11:47.140 solar are not available all the time
00:11:48.990 00:11:49.000 this means that I need to start creating
00:11:51.690 00:11:51.700 some really flexible solutions in my
00:11:55.740 00:11:55.750 energy system so that I can accommodate
00:11:57.930 00:11:57.940 for this wind and solar power that will
00:12:00.750 00:12:00.760 go up and down throughout the day
00:12:02.220 00:12:02.230 throughout the year so in order to do
00:12:06.330 00:12:06.340 that one of the very first steps I can
00:12:08.790 00:12:08.800 do I should just mention that these CSP
00:12:11.910 00:12:11.920 plants can be flexible to a certain
00:12:14.580 00:12:14.590 extent what that means that you can only
00:12:16.890 00:12:16.900 integrate about 10 percent 10 to 15% of
00:12:19.920 00:12:19.930 your electricity sector with wind
00:12:22.320 00:12:22.330 disorder in order to let these chp
00:12:25.200 00:12:25.210 plants operate in a more flexible way
00:12:27.210 00:12:27.220 they should have some thermal storage on
00:12:30.270 00:12:30.280 the district heating system and thermal
00:12:34.560 00:12:34.570 storage is a very well-known and event
00:12:36.740 00:12:36.750 technology that's extremely cheap so if
00:12:40.670 00:12:40.680 I put some terrible storage as my step
00:12:43.700 00:12:43.710 forward on the energy system now I can
00:12:47.780 00:12:47.790 operate these CHP plants so about 20% of
00:12:51.200 00:12:51.210 my electricity can come from wind or
00:12:53.450 00:12:53.460 solar thermal storage just to give you
00:12:56.900 00:12:56.910 an example costs about 50 times less
00:12:59.990 00:13:00.000 than electricity storage so this is
00:13:02.120 00:13:02.130 extremely cheap way of introducing some
00:13:04.820 00:13:04.830 flexibility into your energy system so
00:13:08.420 00:13:08.430 now I'm really kind of starting to
00:13:09.950 00:13:09.960 connect the electricity and heating
00:13:11.570 00:13:11.580 sectors together I'm using the CHP
00:13:14.180 00:13:14.190 plants to produce some heat and I'm also
00:13:16.430 00:13:16.440 using the heat storage to create some
00:13:18.680 00:13:18.690 flexibility to allow me to use more
00:13:21.290 00:13:21.300 electricity from wind disorder in the
00:13:23.720 00:13:23.730 electric in the electricity sector so
00:13:26.930 00:13:26.940 step 5 then I've now got at this point
00:13:29.720 00:13:29.730 with all of these changes I can use
00:13:32.270 00:13:32.280 about 20% of my electricity can come
00:13:35.120 00:13:35.130 from wind and solar power but I need to
00:13:37.580 00:13:37.590 keep up with other ways of making the
00:13:39.500 00:13:39.510 system even more flexible so that I can
00:13:41.780 00:13:41.790 increase that amount and thus reduce the
00:13:44.150 00:13:44.160 demand and the bio energy on this side
00:13:46.430 00:13:46.440 so the next step that we would recommend
00:13:48.650 00:13:48.660 is that number 5 you introduce heat
00:13:52.430 00:13:52.440 pumps and heat pumps are an extremely
00:13:57.260 00:13:57.270 efficient way of converting electricity
00:14:00.860 00:14:00.870 into heat so they consume some
00:14:04.400 00:14:04.410 electricity and for every one unit of
00:14:08.510 00:14:08.520 electricity that the heat pump consumes
00:14:10.280 00:14:10.290 it usually produces about 3 units of
00:14:14.000 00:14:14.010 heat now this is extremely important
00:14:17.120 00:14:17.130 because not only have I produced
00:14:20.270 00:14:20.280 introduced a very efficient way of
00:14:22.040 00:14:22.050 producing heat I now connected wind and
00:14:25.280 00:14:25.290 solar directly to terminal storage via
00:14:29.329 00:14:29.339 the heat pumps producing heat on the
00:14:31.610 00:14:31.620 district heating system in other words
00:14:33.950 00:14:33.960 wind and solar power now have access to
00:14:37.579 00:14:37.589 very large and cheap amounts of energy
00:14:40.010 00:14:40.020 storage in the form of terms
00:14:42.020 00:14:42.030 storage so electricity can be produced
00:14:45.200 00:14:45.210 from a wind turbine maybe the wind is
00:14:48.230 00:14:48.240 blowing a lot so it doesn't need all
00:14:49.940 00:14:49.950 that electricity that electricity can be
00:14:52.280 00:14:52.290 used to power a heat pump or produces
00:14:54.530 00:14:54.540 some heat and that heat is then stored
00:14:56.120 00:14:56.130 in thermal storage until it is near
00:14:58.630 00:14:58.640 these heat pumps don't just go in the
00:15:01.520 00:15:01.530 district heating systems they can also
00:15:03.680 00:15:03.690 go in the individual buildings and
00:15:06.130 00:15:06.140 there's also thermal storage in the
00:15:08.870 00:15:08.880 individual buildings so this means that
00:15:11.270 00:15:11.280 in the future if we have a smart energy
00:15:13.880 00:15:13.890 system if you live in the city you'll
00:15:16.220 00:15:16.230 probably get your heat from a district
00:15:17.930 00:15:17.940 heating system if you live in a rural
00:15:20.450 00:15:20.460 area outside of the cities you'll
00:15:22.940 00:15:22.950 probably get your heat from an
00:15:24.860 00:15:24.870 individual heat pump that's constructed
00:15:27.080 00:15:27.090 inside your home this means that we no
00:15:29.630 00:15:29.640 longer need the individual boilers
00:15:32.120 00:15:32.130 relying on the biomass or the bioenergy
00:15:35.050 00:15:35.060 because instead we're using these very
00:15:37.670 00:15:37.680 efficient heat pumps that get their
00:15:39.890 00:15:39.900 energy from much more sustainable wind
00:15:42.860 00:15:42.870 and solar power there may be some cases
00:15:46.220 00:15:46.230 where people have very cheap access to
00:15:48.830 00:15:48.840 bioenergy and therefore it makes sense
00:15:51.080 00:15:51.090 that they have a biomass boiler in their
00:15:53.270 00:15:53.280 house but in the majority of cases we
00:15:55.760 00:15:55.770 won't have cheap access to bioenergy and
00:15:58.310 00:15:58.320 instead we'll have a heat pump that
00:16:00.080 00:16:00.090 depends primarily on wind and solar
00:16:02.270 00:16:02.280 power when we introduce these large heat
00:16:05.450 00:16:05.460 pumps in the district heating system and
00:16:07.220 00:16:07.230 these small heat pumps in the individual
00:16:09.440 00:16:09.450 buildings in the rural areas we can now
00:16:11.840 00:16:11.850 introduce about 40% of our electricity
00:16:14.510 00:16:14.520 can be produced from wind and solar
00:16:17.030 00:16:17.040 power so we now have enough flexibility
00:16:19.610 00:16:19.620 by connecting the electricity and heat
00:16:22.040 00:16:22.050 sector to one another so that about 40%
00:16:25.400 00:16:25.410 of our electricity can come from wind
00:16:27.290 00:16:27.300 and solar power and that's a really
00:16:30.380 00:16:30.390 really good good progress compared to
00:16:32.450 00:16:32.460 where most countries are at today so now
00:16:35.840 00:16:35.850 I'm going to move on to the next step
00:16:37.610 00:16:37.620 now that we have kind of used as much
00:16:40.040 00:16:40.050 flexibility in the electricity and heat
00:16:42.770 00:16:42.780 sectors through the use of terms of
00:16:44.900 00:16:44.910 storage and heat pumps and these new
00:16:47.120 00:16:47.130 resources we can now focus on how can we
00:16:49.970 00:16:49.980 combine the electric
00:16:51.170 00:16:51.180 and mobility sectors so we can get some
00:16:53.870 00:16:53.880 extra wind and solar power onto our
00:16:56.060 00:16:56.070 system and reduce the need for bioenergy
00:16:58.550 00:16:58.560 and the first key step in this process
00:17:02.110 00:17:02.120 is the introduction of electric cars so
00:17:06.170 00:17:06.180 my column Eevee's is the common name for
00:17:08.510 00:17:08.520 that where I produce electricity and
00:17:11.750 00:17:11.760 from the electricity
00:17:13.880 00:17:13.890 i power an electric vehicle which can
00:17:16.190 00:17:16.200 meet some of my transport demand so
00:17:19.550 00:17:19.560 these are the three cars and I should
00:17:21.500 00:17:21.510 stress that I'm now only talking about
00:17:23.390 00:17:23.400 cars individual cars we expects that
00:17:26.510 00:17:26.520 about 70 to 80 percent of existing
00:17:29.720 00:17:29.730 vehicles can be replaced with electric
00:17:31.640 00:17:31.650 cars by 2050 we've now connected wind
00:17:36.200 00:17:36.210 and solar power via electricity through
00:17:39.380 00:17:39.390 an electric vehicle to the mobility
00:17:41.540 00:17:41.550 sector and this is really really
00:17:43.460 00:17:43.470 important because now I'm replacing
00:17:45.560 00:17:45.570 liquid fuel that would otherwise have to
00:17:47.690 00:17:47.700 come from either oil or a biofuel so I'm
00:17:50.600 00:17:50.610 replacing the liquid fuel from a
00:17:53.210 00:17:53.220 combustion engine with electricity
00:17:55.130 00:17:55.140 that's produced by wind or solar power
00:17:58.100 00:17:58.110 so this is my step number 6 electric
00:18:01.220 00:18:01.230 vehicles when I do this these are the
00:18:05.750 00:18:05.760 two vehicles have batteries which means
00:18:07.640 00:18:07.650 they introduce some flexibility which
00:18:09.770 00:18:09.780 means it's easier to integrate more wind
00:18:11.960 00:18:11.970 and solar power so when I carried out
00:18:14.180 00:18:14.190 all of these steps that are presented to
00:18:16.100 00:18:16.110 you so far you could provide about 55 to
00:18:19.820 00:18:19.830 60% of your electricity demand from wind
00:18:23.510 00:18:23.520 and solar and when I say 55 to 60
00:18:26.540 00:18:26.550 percent I also AM including the extra
00:18:29.810 00:18:29.820 electricity demands we have from the
00:18:32.300 00:18:32.310 electric vehicles and from the heat
00:18:33.800 00:18:33.810 pumps that we've we've introduced into
00:18:36.380 00:18:36.390 the system so now we're at a situation
00:18:39.740 00:18:39.750 where we have quite a lot of renewable
00:18:42.950 00:18:42.960 energy in our end user demands our heat
00:18:46.310 00:18:46.320 sector now is very renewable with a lot
00:18:48.800 00:18:48.810 of bioenergy in the CHP plants wind and
00:18:51.380 00:18:51.390 solar and the heat pumps lots of
00:18:53.150 00:18:53.160 flexibility going on with the thermal
00:18:54.890 00:18:54.900 storage and we've also introduced some
00:18:57.230 00:18:57.240 renewable
00:18:57.779 00:18:57.789 in the individual Harris via electric
00:18:59.940 00:18:59.950 vehicles the big challenge when we get
00:19:02.820 00:19:02.830 to this stage of transition is replacing
00:19:06.029 00:19:06.039 the energy dense fuels in the trucks the
00:19:08.940 00:19:08.950 airplanes and the ships so how do we
00:19:11.129 00:19:11.139 replace those liquid and gas fuels that
00:19:13.710 00:19:13.720 are used for the heavy transport like
00:19:16.259 00:19:16.269 trucks and airplanes and ships and the
00:19:19.259 00:19:19.269 key technology that we see in providing
00:19:21.989 00:19:21.999 this is something called sin Pesek fuels
00:19:29.779 00:19:29.789 and these are a type of fuel that use
00:19:35.969 00:19:35.979 electricity so to create a synthetic
00:19:39.389 00:19:39.399 fuel I use some electricity that
00:19:43.889 00:19:43.899 electricity produces some hydrogen I
00:19:46.489 00:19:46.499 combined that hydrogen with some carbon
00:19:48.989 00:19:48.999 that I capture from a power plant for
00:19:51.269 00:19:51.279 example are from industry are from a bio
00:19:53.430 00:19:53.440 energy source so I produce some hydrogen
00:19:56.669 00:19:56.679 with electricity combine it with some
00:19:58.889 00:19:58.899 carbon and from that combination of
00:20:01.830 00:20:01.840 carbon and hydrogen I can produce some
00:20:05.700 00:20:05.710 form of hydrocarbon which goes into a
00:20:08.969 00:20:08.979 combustion engine so it can be a liquid
00:20:11.549 00:20:11.559 hydrocarbon like oil is it can be a
00:20:14.099 00:20:14.109 gaseous hydrocarbons an actual gases and
00:20:17.659 00:20:17.669 so in other words what I've done now is
00:20:20.070 00:20:20.080 I've connected wind and solar to the
00:20:24.629 00:20:24.639 heavy duty transport via the production
00:20:27.479 00:20:27.489 of synthetic fuels so I'm now connecting
00:20:30.899 00:20:30.909 an intermittent renewable resource like
00:20:32.999 00:20:33.009 wind and solar to heavy dense energy
00:20:36.509 00:20:36.519 dense transport use so these fuels here
00:20:41.419 00:20:41.429 are currently only a demonstration stage
00:20:44.430 00:20:44.440 but most of the individual technologies
00:20:47.039 00:20:47.049 required to produce them are very much
00:20:49.589 00:20:49.599 underway - to development so there's
00:20:52.409 00:20:52.419 different places that the hydrogen will
00:20:54.330 00:20:54.340 have to come from electrolyzers that use
00:20:56.909 00:20:56.919 electricity from the wind and solar and
00:20:58.799 00:20:58.809 the carbon one can come from a variety
00:21:00.779 00:21:00.789 of different sources
00:21:02.440 00:21:02.450 such as biomass such as industry such as
00:21:05.260 00:21:05.270 the air such as the power plant exhaust
00:21:07.540 00:21:07.550 and so on now that means that one really
00:21:11.680 00:21:11.690 significant change that has happened
00:21:13.240 00:21:13.250 here is I'm now able to get my very
00:21:16.240 00:21:16.250 sustainable wind and solar resource into
00:21:19.420 00:21:19.430 the heavy duty transport and
00:21:21.090 00:21:21.100 significantly reducing the dependency on
00:21:24.370 00:21:24.380 bio energy today fossil fuels but the
00:21:28.630 00:21:28.640 other very very important side effect is
00:21:31.180 00:21:31.190 that when I do this when I produce these
00:21:34.210 00:21:34.220 fuels with electricity and so on I now
00:21:37.570 00:21:37.580 get access to fuel storage and this is
00:21:45.340 00:21:45.350 extremely important I can now use fuel
00:21:48.670 00:21:48.680 storage in my system now by fuel storage
00:21:52.240 00:21:52.250 I mean for example today we see a lot of
00:21:54.610 00:21:54.620 big containers that contain oil large
00:21:57.490 00:21:57.500 amounts of oil and these big containers
00:21:59.940 00:21:59.950 contain a very large amount of energy so
00:22:03.220 00:22:03.230 in for example Denmark there is 50
00:22:06.100 00:22:06.110 terawatt-hours that's 50 terawatt-hours
00:22:09.600 00:22:09.610 of oil storage in Denmark at the same
00:22:15.010 00:22:15.020 time
00:22:15.670 00:22:15.680 Denmark's annual electricity demand a
00:22:18.100 00:22:18.110 total amount of electricity that's used
00:22:19.900 00:22:19.910 in Denmark all year round is about 35
00:22:23.140 00:22:23.150 terawatt-hours that means that there's
00:22:26.260 00:22:26.270 no more oil storage in Denmark then the
00:22:28.870 00:22:28.880 total electricity demand consumed over
00:22:31.330 00:22:31.340 the whole year now this is very
00:22:33.610 00:22:33.620 significant because it means that when I
00:22:35.650 00:22:35.660 connect the electricity sector to
00:22:38.350 00:22:38.360 synthetic fuels and the fuel storage
00:22:40.870 00:22:40.880 system
00:22:41.620 00:22:41.630 I now have introduced huge amounts of
00:22:44.800 00:22:44.810 flexibility within the conversion per
00:22:47.170 00:22:47.180 side of the energy system so when the
00:22:49.570 00:22:49.580 wind is blowing too much I can easily
00:22:52.060 00:22:52.070 produce some synthetic fuels which I can
00:22:54.280 00:22:54.290 then put into a storage tank and keep
00:22:56.380 00:22:56.390 for a time that I need them I've now
00:22:58.450 00:22:58.460 connected intermittent resources to an
00:23:01.180 00:23:01.190 extremely large amount of cheap
00:23:04.350 00:23:04.360 affordable energy storage so this
00:23:07.830 00:23:07.840 flexibility that I removed when I
00:23:10.240 00:23:10.250 reader the fossil fuels has now been
00:23:12.520 00:23:12.530 reintroduced in the conversion end of
00:23:15.190 00:23:15.200 the energy system where I can now easily
00:23:17.380 00:23:17.390 integrate very large amounts of wind and
00:23:20.409 00:23:20.419 solar due to all of this flexibility
00:23:22.779 00:23:22.789 that I've now really introduced back
00:23:24.880 00:23:24.890 into the system when I do this step
00:23:28.960 00:23:28.970 number seven that I've now changed
00:23:31.330 00:23:31.340 I can now supply approximately 80% of my
00:23:36.730 00:23:36.740 electricity demands from wind and solar
00:23:39.820 00:23:39.830 and that's 80 percent of the total
00:23:42.850 00:23:42.860 electricity demand so it includes the
00:23:45.279 00:23:45.289 extra electricity that I need to produce
00:23:47.470 00:23:47.480 these synthetic fuels you can now see
00:23:51.279 00:23:51.289 that the energy system is far more
00:23:53.140 00:23:53.150 complex especially in the conversion
00:23:55.779 00:23:55.789 side of the energy system than it was
00:23:58.419 00:23:58.429 when we began and we estimate that using
00:24:01.510 00:24:01.520 the energy plan model that we've
00:24:04.060 00:24:04.070 developed at Auburn University and this
00:24:06.520 00:24:06.530 concept of smart energy systems which we
00:24:08.740 00:24:08.750 try to model and analyze that we can
00:24:11.200 00:24:11.210 achieve a 100% renewable energy system
00:24:14.080 00:24:14.090 without overusing the bio energy
00:24:17.649 00:24:17.659 resource we have available to us today
00:24:19.539 00:24:19.549 and we can do that without increasing
00:24:23.080 00:24:23.090 the costs of energy in the year 2050 we
00:24:26.470 00:24:26.480 estimate that a maximum increase of
00:24:28.690 00:24:28.700 about 10% in our energy costs will occur
00:24:31.120 00:24:31.130 but that's been very let's say on the
00:24:34.360 00:24:34.370 pessimistic side there's many
00:24:36.070 00:24:36.080 assumptions that indicate it may be a
00:24:38.260 00:24:38.270 relatively similar price for energy in
00:24:40.870 00:24:40.880 the future as it is if we you depend on
00:24:43.270 00:24:43.280 fossil fuels so the first thing I want
00:24:46.690 00:24:46.700 to emphasize once again is that this is
00:24:48.549 00:24:48.559 a 100 percent renewable energy system
00:24:51.130 00:24:51.140 that uses so much wind and solar that we
00:24:53.980 00:24:53.990 don't over consume the bio energy
00:24:56.440 00:24:56.450 resource the next key point is that the
00:25:00.310 00:25:00.320 cost of energy in this system is not
00:25:03.039 00:25:03.049 significantly higher than the cost would
00:25:05.380 00:25:05.390 be if we stayed relying on fossil fuels
00:25:08.260 00:25:08.270 and the final very important point that
00:25:11.020 00:25:11.030 you need to acknowledge when you see
00:25:13.450 00:25:13.460 this type of system is that the costs
00:25:16.600 00:25:16.610 might be relatively similar but the
00:25:18.760 00:25:18.770 structure of the cost
00:25:20.180 00:25:20.190 has changed dramatically in this system
00:25:22.659 00:25:22.669 compared to a fossil fuel world
00:25:25.240 00:25:25.250 especially if you're living in a country
00:25:27.619 00:25:27.629 or a region that imports a lots of its
00:25:30.379 00:25:30.389 fossil fuels for example if we take the
00:25:32.960 00:25:32.970 European Union right now the European
00:25:35.269 00:25:35.279 Union imports a lot of its fossil fuels
00:25:37.659 00:25:37.669 intimates into the region this means
00:25:40.879 00:25:40.889 that a lot of money is exported out of
00:25:43.399 00:25:43.409 the European Union to other countries
00:25:45.409 00:25:45.419 where we need to get those fossil fuels
00:25:47.539 00:25:47.549 into the European Union
00:25:49.340 00:25:49.350 income in contrast if we have a smart
00:25:52.310 00:25:52.320 energy system very little of the energy
00:25:55.070 00:25:55.080 system is dependent on fossil fuels in
00:25:57.409 00:25:57.419 fact in this situation we have no fossil
00:25:59.419 00:25:59.429 fuels and instead we're depending on
00:26:01.669 00:26:01.679 local bioenergy which is developed
00:26:04.100 00:26:04.110 inside the European Union we also have a
00:26:06.799 00:26:06.809 lot of infrastructure that were now
00:26:08.389 00:26:08.399 developing locally so instead of
00:26:11.029 00:26:11.039 spending money importing fuels we're now
00:26:13.610 00:26:13.620 spending money developing local
00:26:15.590 00:26:15.600 infrastructure we're building new CSP
00:26:17.899 00:26:17.909 plants were building new supplies of
00:26:20.060 00:26:20.070 Heath Billy new supplies of electricity
00:26:22.129 00:26:22.139 continue heat pumps in the building's
00:26:24.350 00:26:24.360 making the buildings more efficient
00:26:26.330 00:26:26.340 reducing the need for oil by developing
00:26:29.240 00:26:29.250 some electric vehicles building you
00:26:31.310 00:26:31.320 synthetic fuel plants these are all
00:26:33.259 00:26:33.269 local investments so we expect that even
00:26:36.950 00:26:36.960 though the costs of the energy are very
00:26:38.779 00:26:38.789 similar the amount of jobs that you
00:26:40.970 00:26:40.980 create with a smart energy system far
00:26:43.909 00:26:43.919 exceed the amount of jobs that currently
00:26:46.279 00:26:46.289 exists in a fossil fuel energy system
00:26:48.980 00:26:48.990 and that is really good news because it
00:26:51.860 00:26:51.870 means we can be 100% renewable without
00:26:54.769 00:26:54.779 overusing our bio energy we can do that
00:26:57.619 00:26:57.629 without significantly increasing the
00:26:59.389 00:26:59.399 cost of energy and we can do it by
00:27:01.519 00:27:01.529 creating a lot of local jobs this is the
00:27:04.580 00:27:04.590 type of analysis that we quantify in our
00:27:07.220 00:27:07.230 research group at Auburn University and
00:27:09.320 00:27:09.330 you can read many of our publications on
00:27:11.629 00:27:11.639 our website energy plan bu
00:27:14.149 00:27:14.159 you can also freely download the model
00:27:16.129 00:27:16.139 we have developed to model these types
00:27:17.749 00:27:17.759 of energy systems and perhaps carry out
00:27:19.999 00:27:20.009 a smart energy system analysis of your
00:27:22.519 00:27:22.529 own country thank you for listening and
00:27:24.649 00:27:24.659 I hope you enjoyed the video
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