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One Potential Transition to 100% Renewable Energy (Technical Perspective)
WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en
00:00:05.120 hello and welcome to my video or my name 00:00:07.70000:00:07.710 is Davis Connelly and I am an assistant 00:00:10.19000:00:10.200 professor at Auburn University in 00:00:11.87000:00:11.880 Copenhagen Denmark and today i'm 00:00:14.18000:00:14.190 representing IDEO to you that outlines 00:00:16.91000:00:16.920 how the existing energy system being can 00:00:19.13000:00:19.140 be converted from being dependent on 00:00:21.32000:00:21.330 fossil fuels to 100 percent renewable 00:00:23.96000:00:23.970 energy without using excessive amounts 00:00:27.74000:00:27.750 of bioenergy so I want to start by first 00:00:30.91900:00:30.929 explaining what the existing energy 00:00:32.65900:00:32.669 system looks like so that you can see 00:00:34.88000:00:34.890 the characteristics that it has and how 00:00:37.19000:00:37.200 they have to change over the next 40 00:00:39.61900:00:39.629 years to neighbor to become 100% 00:00:41.99000:00:42.000 renewable so we want to start by talking 00:00:45.11000:00:45.120 about the type of demands that we have 00:00:46.85000:00:46.860 in the energy system so today there's 00:00:50.38900:00:50.399 three primary demands that we have from 00:00:54.11000:00:54.120 energy first of all we have mobility our 00:00:57.08000:00:57.090 transport that's one key demand that we 00:01:00.92000:01:00.930 have for energy the other is electricity 00:01:06.25000:01:06.260 and the final key demand is heat or 00:01:11.12000:01:11.130 cooling these are the three types of 00:01:14.81000:01:14.820 end-user demands that need to be met 00:01:17.39000:01:17.400 with some form of energy today in order 00:01:20.69000:01:20.700 to meet those different types of demands 00:01:22.60900:01:22.619 we have different conversion 00:01:24.08000:01:24.090 technologies and those conversion 00:01:29.69000:01:29.700 technologies for example for electricity 00:01:31.73000:01:31.740 one of the most the most common one for 00:01:33.98000:01:33.990 electricity are power plants power 00:01:38.66000:01:38.670 plants basically converts some form of 00:01:42.46900:01:42.479 fuels into electricity so if we then 00:01:46.81000:01:46.820 after the conversion technology we put 00:01:49.73000:01:49.740 the resource then today we have some 00:01:55.78900:01:55.799 form of fossil fuel being put into a 00:02:00.92000:02:00.930 power plant which then converts the fuel 00:02:04.42900:02:04.439 to electricity for the end-user if we 00:02:07.67000:02:07.680 then look at the heating engine 00:02:09.35900:02:09.369 and what happens in heat is that we have 00:02:12.18000:02:12.190 some form of individual boiler so that 00:02:17.58000:02:17.590 can be like an oil boiler or a gas 00:02:19.74000:02:19.750 boiler usually so once again we put some 00:02:23.39900:02:23.409 fossil fuel into an individual divider 00:02:25.97900:02:25.989 and out of that we get some heat for the 00:02:29.06900:02:29.079 end user for mobility it's usually a 00:02:32.16000:02:32.170 combustion engine so that could be the 00:02:34.53000:02:34.540 engine of a car or ship or an airplane 00:02:36.69000:02:36.700 some form of combustion engine and 00:02:42.44000:02:42.450 further those combustion engines it's 00:02:45.00000:02:45.010 almost always oil and it can be gas but 00:02:48.80900:02:48.819 it's almost always oil that's taken put 00:02:52.68000:02:52.690 into a combustion engine and we use that 00:02:54.50900:02:54.519 to provide some form of transport so I 00:02:57.86900:02:57.879 hope that this breakdown of what the 00:03:00.21000:03:00.220 energy system looks like today 00:03:01.84900:03:01.859 illustrates immediately to you that the 00:03:04.89000:03:04.900 energy system is actually a relatively 00:03:06.66000:03:06.670 simple structure in terms of how fuel 00:03:10.34900:03:10.359 goes from beginning to a need user 00:03:12.53900:03:12.549 demand so what you can probably see 00:03:14.69900:03:14.709 straight away here is that each of our 00:03:17.12900:03:17.139 sectors is very isolated from one 00:03:19.55900:03:19.569 another Jesus provided by individual 00:03:21.96000:03:21.970 boilers and has very little connection 00:03:23.61000:03:23.620 with the electricity sector electricity 00:03:25.86000:03:25.870 is provided by power plants and 00:03:27.59900:03:27.609 electricity is very diluted interaction 00:03:29.69900:03:29.709 with the transport sector there is a 00:03:31.83000:03:31.840 small bit of interaction here where 00:03:33.69000:03:33.700 sometimes that tricity is used to 00:03:35.28000:03:35.290 provide heating or cooling or for the 00:03:37.53000:03:37.540 purposes of this diagram I'm just going 00:03:39.90000:03:39.910 to leave it out so it doesn't become too 00:03:41.36900:03:41.379 cluttered because the general principle 00:03:43.58900:03:43.599 is that in almost all cases these are 00:03:46.11000:03:46.120 very separate from one another another 00:03:48.99000:03:49.000 key characteristic that I want you to 00:03:50.72900:03:50.739 use to look at in this system is that 00:03:52.61000:03:52.620 fossil fuels are the foundations for how 00:03:55.61900:03:55.629 everything else is designed so if for 00:04:00.33000:04:00.340 example we want some electricity we turn 00:04:03.47900:04:03.489 on a power plant whenever the user 00:04:04.89000:04:04.900 switches on that light for example and 00:04:07.05000:04:07.060 in some fossil fuel is immediately 00:04:09.15000:04:09.160 provided to produce more electricity 00:04:11.03000:04:11.040 what that means is that this fossil fuel 00:04:14.72900:04:14.739 is providing the rest of the energy 00:04:16.96000:04:16.970 system with a lot of cheap stored energy 00:04:20.02000:04:20.030 in other words all of the flexibility in 00:04:22.96000:04:22.970 this energy system is coming from the 00:04:25.66000:04:25.670 very large amounts of stored energy 00:04:27.55000:04:27.560 contained in these fossil fuels so with 00:04:30.79000:04:30.800 the transport sector there's a lot of 00:04:32.32000:04:32.330 stored energy and oil in the power 00:04:34.24000:04:34.250 plants at either coal or gas usually and 00:04:36.46000:04:36.470 for individual boilers it can be cold 00:04:38.56000:04:38.570 gas or been are primarily used for the 00:04:42.13000:04:42.140 individual employers so in other words 00:04:44.17000:04:44.180 because of all this stored energy and 00:04:46.39000:04:46.400 the fossil fuels very little flexibility 00:04:49.66000:04:49.670 exists under in the rest of the energy 00:04:51.76000:04:51.770 system so for example when somebody 00:04:54.07000:04:54.080 turns on the light 00:04:55.03000:04:55.040 they never expect to have to wait for 00:04:57.46000:04:57.470 some electricity before the light comes 00:04:59.11000:04:59.120 on they expect to get immediately and 00:05:01.45000:05:01.460 that's because of this flexibility that 00:05:03.55000:05:03.560 the fossil fuels has provided us with 00:05:05.20000:05:05.210 over the last 150 years so taking those 00:05:09.40000:05:09.410 characteristics into account I'm going 00:05:11.98000:05:11.990 to now start talking about how do we 00:05:13.54000:05:13.550 transition away from being this type of 00:05:16.03000:05:16.040 energy system to a 100% renewable energy 00:05:19.30000:05:19.310 system so the first thing you can 00:05:21.58000:05:21.590 probably guess is going to happen is I 00:05:23.50000:05:23.510 have to get rid of these fossil fuels 00:05:25.87000:05:25.880 now as I just mentioned fossil fuels are 00:05:29.83000:05:29.840 the primary source of flexibility that 00:05:32.02000:05:32.030 enables everything else to function so 00:05:34.21000:05:34.220 smoothly in this energy system so we 00:05:36.96900:05:36.979 have removed the fossil fuels my 00:05:38.92000:05:38.930 flexibility is now gone and I have to 00:05:41.20000:05:41.210 start replacing it with some new forms 00:05:43.81000:05:43.820 of flexibility or new forms of human so 00:05:47.23000:05:47.240 the first question that would be very 00:05:48.52000:05:48.530 logical and that people often ask is is 00:05:51.28000:05:51.290 there any direct replacement for the 00:05:53.53000:05:53.540 fossil fuels that we can just use that 00:05:55.96000:05:55.970 is sustainable and the one common thing 00:05:58.65900:05:58.669 that's usually promoted is bioenergy and 00:06:02.26000:06:02.270 this is a very good solution in many 00:06:05.95000:06:05.960 ways bioenergy is very similar to fossil 00:06:09.76000:06:09.770 fuels in the sense that coal can be 00:06:12.58000:06:12.590 replaced by biomass gas can be replaced 00:06:15.21900:06:15.229 by biogas and oil can be replaced by 00:06:18.15900:06:18.169 biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol 00:06:20.62000:06:20.630 which means that if we replace fossil 00:06:23.74000:06:23.750 fuels with bioenergy then the job is 00:06:26.32000:06:26.330 done we're now a 100 percent 00:06:28.00000:06:28.010 and we can use all of the existing 00:06:30.52000:06:30.530 infrastructure in the same way as we 00:06:32.41000:06:32.420 used to have fossil fuels the big 00:06:35.59000:06:35.600 problem however the reason that this 00:06:37.27000:06:37.280 isn't possible is that there simply 00:06:39.40000:06:39.410 isn't enough bio energy to simply 00:06:41.80000:06:41.810 replace fossil fuels altogether there a 00:06:45.64000:06:45.650 lot of it can be covered but if we want 00:06:47.62000:06:47.630 to use the same amount of energy as we 00:06:50.59000:06:50.600 do today in the future then there 00:06:52.87000:06:52.880 wouldn't be enough land to grow or 00:06:54.73000:06:54.740 develop all the bio energy we would need 00:06:56.62000:06:56.630 without having severe effects on things 00:06:59.29000:06:59.300 like food production and that means that 00:07:01.93000:07:01.940 yes bioenergy can be part of the 00:07:03.79000:07:03.800 solution but it definitely can't provide 00:07:06.16000:07:06.170 all of the solution because we're 00:07:08.41000:07:08.420 limited in the amount of bioenergy we 00:07:10.15000:07:10.160 can use so then the next question is if 00:07:13.39000:07:13.400 we have a limited amount of resources a 00:07:15.91000:07:15.920 bit available can we start to make this 00:07:18.34000:07:18.350 energy system much more efficient now 00:07:21.55000:07:21.560 one obvious way we can do that is we can 00:07:23.86000:07:23.870 reduce our demands here on this side so 00:07:26.59000:07:26.600 we can reduce the amount of heat we use 00:07:28.33000:07:28.340 we can reduce our electricity and 00:07:30.22000:07:30.230 transport of use in the future it's 00:07:32.65000:07:32.660 likely that we can have significant 00:07:34.45000:07:34.460 reductions of up to about thirty or 00:07:36.13000:07:36.140 forty percent in our heat demands we can 00:07:38.86000:07:38.870 reduce our electricity demands made by 00:07:40.45000:07:40.460 10 or 15 percent but our mobility is 00:07:43.48000:07:43.490 surely going to increase in the 00:07:45.40000:07:45.410 developed world especially as we go into 00:07:48.37000:07:48.380 the future so there's definitely 00:07:50.11000:07:50.120 potential here to reduce the demands but 00:07:52.72000:07:52.730 definitely not enough to me still have a 00:07:55.12000:07:55.130 sustainable amount of bio energy that we 00:07:57.19000:07:57.200 need so let's say step number two is 00:08:00.33000:08:00.340 reductions so we're going to have 00:08:03.13000:08:03.140 reductions in heat we're going to have 00:08:05.89000:08:05.900 reductions in electricity and we're 00:08:08.92000:08:08.930 going to have reductions in mobility I 00:08:15.69000:08:15.700 would call this more efficient rather 00:08:18.25000:08:18.260 than reductions because we're probably 00:08:19.78000:08:19.790 going to travel more but we can do with 00:08:21.82000:08:21.830 in more efficient ways maybe by 00:08:23.38000:08:23.390 increasing public transport and so on 00:08:25.36000:08:25.370 but in any case we're making the system 00:08:28.35000:08:28.360 more efficient and using our energy 00:08:31.21000:08:31.220 better 00:08:31.90900:08:31.919 the end user level when we do this now 00:08:34.61000:08:34.620 we require less bio energy but as I said 00:08:36.62000:08:36.630 it's still not enough we still need to 00:08:38.95900:08:38.969 do other actions so let's start looking 00:08:40.96900:08:40.979 now at how the conversion process can be 00:08:43.31000:08:43.320 altered so that we use a sustainable 00:08:45.53000:08:45.540 amount of bio energy and the first 00:08:47.66000:08:47.670 simple step that can happen is that when 00:08:50.63000:08:50.640 power plants produce electricity usually 00:08:53.26900:08:53.279 about sixty percent of the energy is 00:08:55.61000:08:55.620 wasted as heat and today in most 00:08:57.94900:08:57.959 developed countries that heat is simply 00:09:00.13900:09:00.149 put into a river or into a into the sea 00:09:02.72000:09:02.730 and instead of putting out heat into the 00:09:05.21000:09:05.220 river of the sea we can connect that 00:09:07.25000:09:07.260 heat to the heating sector so that we 00:09:09.92000:09:09.930 can make our overall system more 00:09:11.75000:09:11.760 efficient so instead of using power 00:09:14.26900:09:14.279 plants we can convert those power plants 00:09:16.63900:09:16.649 in my step tree to something called 00:09:19.67000:09:19.680 combined heat and power plant CHP plants 00:09:22.49000:09:22.500 these CSP plants don't just produce 00:09:25.10000:09:25.110 electricity they also produce heat for 00:09:27.92000:09:27.930 the heating sector so we then have to 00:09:29.96000:09:29.970 construct a district heating system 00:09:32.84000:09:32.850 which is a pipe line of hot water that 00:09:36.23000:09:36.240 connects the surplus heat from these 00:09:37.88000:09:37.890 power plants to the end-user heat demand 00:09:40.63000:09:40.640 this means that instead now of having 00:09:43.57900:09:43.589 power plants that are forty percent 00:09:45.23000:09:45.240 efficient there are now about 90 percent 00:09:47.75000:09:47.760 efficient because we're using all this 00:09:49.63900:09:49.649 waste heat to meet our end-users demands 00:09:53.19900:09:53.209 so that means we've now made the system 00:09:55.49000:09:55.500 more efficient by constructing this 00:09:57.68000:09:57.690 district heating system the other very 00:10:00.41000:10:00.420 important thing that we've done by 00:10:02.00000:10:02.010 developing this piece of infrastructure 00:10:03.68000:10:03.690 is we've opened up the possibility to 00:10:06.53000:10:06.540 you use new resources so now that we 00:10:09.88900:10:09.899 have this district heating system in 00:10:11.44900:10:11.459 place we can then build large-scale 00:10:13.63900:10:13.649 solar plants we can build some 00:10:16.06900:10:16.079 geothermal heat plants and we can use 00:10:20.66000:10:20.670 some surplus heat from industry our 00:10:22.73000:10:22.740 waste incineration these are all new 00:10:27.82900:10:27.839 sources of heat that can be utilized in 00:10:30.47000:10:30.480 the energy system and this is very 00:10:32.60000:10:32.610 important because using these 00:10:34.44000:10:34.450 resources once again reduces the 00:10:37.26000:10:37.270 pressure on my violators demand so I'm 00:10:40.35000:10:40.360 now getting all of this new type of heat 00:10:42.42000:10:42.430 into the end users demands so number 00:10:45.90000:10:45.910 three is connecting the electricity and 00:10:48.15000:10:48.160 heat sectors together via district 00:10:50.55000:10:50.560 heating system which makes the system 00:10:52.50000:10:52.510 more efficient and it opens up the 00:10:54.78000:10:54.790 possibility to use some new resources 00:10:58.19000:10:58.200 when I do this the pressure on the bio 00:11:01.26000:11:01.270 energy we would be reduced but as I 00:11:04.23000:11:04.240 mentioned earlier we're still not at a 00:11:06.18000:11:06.190 low enough bio energy level to have a 00:11:08.49000:11:08.500 sustainable amount so now we need to 00:11:10.95000:11:10.960 introduce some new resources on top of 00:11:13.23000:11:13.240 these and the new resources are now 00:11:15.69000:11:15.700 going to add our wind and solar 00:11:19.07000:11:19.080 electricity production so this is the 00:11:22.32000:11:22.330 new type of resource that's going to 00:11:24.09000:11:24.100 form the backbone of my energy system in 00:11:26.70000:11:26.710 the future and these resources produce 00:11:29.54000:11:29.550 electricity so I want to connect these 00:11:32.34000:11:32.350 now to the electricity sector so these 00:11:36.60000:11:36.610 new forms of electricity production can 00:11:40.08000:11:40.090 reduce the need for bioenergy but they 00:11:42.39000:11:42.400 come with one significant drawback and 00:11:44.46000:11:44.470 that's their intermittency so Weidman 00:11:47.13000:11:47.140 solar are not available all the time 00:11:48.99000:11:49.000 this means that I need to start creating 00:11:51.69000:11:51.700 some really flexible solutions in my 00:11:55.74000:11:55.750 energy system so that I can accommodate 00:11:57.93000:11:57.940 for this wind and solar power that will 00:12:00.75000:12:00.760 go up and down throughout the day 00:12:02.22000:12:02.230 throughout the year so in order to do 00:12:06.33000:12:06.340 that one of the very first steps I can 00:12:08.79000:12:08.800 do I should just mention that these CSP 00:12:11.91000:12:11.920 plants can be flexible to a certain 00:12:14.58000:12:14.590 extent what that means that you can only 00:12:16.89000:12:16.900 integrate about 10 percent 10 to 15% of 00:12:19.92000:12:19.930 your electricity sector with wind 00:12:22.32000:12:22.330 disorder in order to let these chp 00:12:25.20000:12:25.210 plants operate in a more flexible way 00:12:27.21000:12:27.220 they should have some thermal storage on 00:12:30.27000:12:30.280 the district heating system and thermal 00:12:34.56000:12:34.570 storage is a very well-known and event 00:12:36.74000:12:36.750 technology that's extremely cheap so if 00:12:40.67000:12:40.680 I put some terrible storage as my step 00:12:43.70000:12:43.710 forward on the energy system now I can 00:12:47.78000:12:47.790 operate these CHP plants so about 20% of 00:12:51.20000:12:51.210 my electricity can come from wind or 00:12:53.45000:12:53.460 solar thermal storage just to give you 00:12:56.90000:12:56.910 an example costs about 50 times less 00:12:59.99000:13:00.000 than electricity storage so this is 00:13:02.12000:13:02.130 extremely cheap way of introducing some 00:13:04.82000:13:04.830 flexibility into your energy system so 00:13:08.42000:13:08.430 now I'm really kind of starting to 00:13:09.95000:13:09.960 connect the electricity and heating 00:13:11.57000:13:11.580 sectors together I'm using the CHP 00:13:14.18000:13:14.190 plants to produce some heat and I'm also 00:13:16.43000:13:16.440 using the heat storage to create some 00:13:18.68000:13:18.690 flexibility to allow me to use more 00:13:21.29000:13:21.300 electricity from wind disorder in the 00:13:23.72000:13:23.730 electric in the electricity sector so 00:13:26.93000:13:26.940 step 5 then I've now got at this point 00:13:29.72000:13:29.730 with all of these changes I can use 00:13:32.27000:13:32.280 about 20% of my electricity can come 00:13:35.12000:13:35.130 from wind and solar power but I need to 00:13:37.58000:13:37.590 keep up with other ways of making the 00:13:39.50000:13:39.510 system even more flexible so that I can 00:13:41.78000:13:41.790 increase that amount and thus reduce the 00:13:44.15000:13:44.160 demand and the bio energy on this side 00:13:46.43000:13:46.440 so the next step that we would recommend 00:13:48.65000:13:48.660 is that number 5 you introduce heat 00:13:52.43000:13:52.440 pumps and heat pumps are an extremely 00:13:57.26000:13:57.270 efficient way of converting electricity 00:14:00.86000:14:00.870 into heat so they consume some 00:14:04.40000:14:04.410 electricity and for every one unit of 00:14:08.51000:14:08.520 electricity that the heat pump consumes 00:14:10.28000:14:10.290 it usually produces about 3 units of 00:14:14.00000:14:14.010 heat now this is extremely important 00:14:17.12000:14:17.130 because not only have I produced 00:14:20.27000:14:20.280 introduced a very efficient way of 00:14:22.04000:14:22.050 producing heat I now connected wind and 00:14:25.28000:14:25.290 solar directly to terminal storage via 00:14:29.32900:14:29.339 the heat pumps producing heat on the 00:14:31.61000:14:31.620 district heating system in other words 00:14:33.95000:14:33.960 wind and solar power now have access to 00:14:37.57900:14:37.589 very large and cheap amounts of energy 00:14:40.01000:14:40.020 storage in the form of terms 00:14:42.02000:14:42.030 storage so electricity can be produced 00:14:45.20000:14:45.210 from a wind turbine maybe the wind is 00:14:48.23000:14:48.240 blowing a lot so it doesn't need all 00:14:49.94000:14:49.950 that electricity that electricity can be 00:14:52.28000:14:52.290 used to power a heat pump or produces 00:14:54.53000:14:54.540 some heat and that heat is then stored 00:14:56.12000:14:56.130 in thermal storage until it is near 00:14:58.63000:14:58.640 these heat pumps don't just go in the 00:15:01.52000:15:01.530 district heating systems they can also 00:15:03.68000:15:03.690 go in the individual buildings and 00:15:06.13000:15:06.140 there's also thermal storage in the 00:15:08.87000:15:08.880 individual buildings so this means that 00:15:11.27000:15:11.280 in the future if we have a smart energy 00:15:13.88000:15:13.890 system if you live in the city you'll 00:15:16.22000:15:16.230 probably get your heat from a district 00:15:17.93000:15:17.940 heating system if you live in a rural 00:15:20.45000:15:20.460 area outside of the cities you'll 00:15:22.94000:15:22.950 probably get your heat from an 00:15:24.86000:15:24.870 individual heat pump that's constructed 00:15:27.08000:15:27.090 inside your home this means that we no 00:15:29.63000:15:29.640 longer need the individual boilers 00:15:32.12000:15:32.130 relying on the biomass or the bioenergy 00:15:35.05000:15:35.060 because instead we're using these very 00:15:37.67000:15:37.680 efficient heat pumps that get their 00:15:39.89000:15:39.900 energy from much more sustainable wind 00:15:42.86000:15:42.870 and solar power there may be some cases 00:15:46.22000:15:46.230 where people have very cheap access to 00:15:48.83000:15:48.840 bioenergy and therefore it makes sense 00:15:51.08000:15:51.090 that they have a biomass boiler in their 00:15:53.27000:15:53.280 house but in the majority of cases we 00:15:55.76000:15:55.770 won't have cheap access to bioenergy and 00:15:58.31000:15:58.320 instead we'll have a heat pump that 00:16:00.08000:16:00.090 depends primarily on wind and solar 00:16:02.27000:16:02.280 power when we introduce these large heat 00:16:05.45000:16:05.460 pumps in the district heating system and 00:16:07.22000:16:07.230 these small heat pumps in the individual 00:16:09.44000:16:09.450 buildings in the rural areas we can now 00:16:11.84000:16:11.850 introduce about 40% of our electricity 00:16:14.51000:16:14.520 can be produced from wind and solar 00:16:17.03000:16:17.040 power so we now have enough flexibility 00:16:19.61000:16:19.620 by connecting the electricity and heat 00:16:22.04000:16:22.050 sector to one another so that about 40% 00:16:25.40000:16:25.410 of our electricity can come from wind 00:16:27.29000:16:27.300 and solar power and that's a really 00:16:30.38000:16:30.390 really good good progress compared to 00:16:32.45000:16:32.460 where most countries are at today so now 00:16:35.84000:16:35.850 I'm going to move on to the next step 00:16:37.61000:16:37.620 now that we have kind of used as much 00:16:40.04000:16:40.050 flexibility in the electricity and heat 00:16:42.77000:16:42.780 sectors through the use of terms of 00:16:44.90000:16:44.910 storage and heat pumps and these new 00:16:47.12000:16:47.130 resources we can now focus on how can we 00:16:49.97000:16:49.980 combine the electric 00:16:51.17000:16:51.180 and mobility sectors so we can get some 00:16:53.87000:16:53.880 extra wind and solar power onto our 00:16:56.06000:16:56.070 system and reduce the need for bioenergy 00:16:58.55000:16:58.560 and the first key step in this process 00:17:02.11000:17:02.120 is the introduction of electric cars so 00:17:06.17000:17:06.180 my column Eevee's is the common name for 00:17:08.51000:17:08.520 that where I produce electricity and 00:17:11.75000:17:11.760 from the electricity 00:17:13.88000:17:13.890 i power an electric vehicle which can 00:17:16.19000:17:16.200 meet some of my transport demand so 00:17:19.55000:17:19.560 these are the three cars and I should 00:17:21.50000:17:21.510 stress that I'm now only talking about 00:17:23.39000:17:23.400 cars individual cars we expects that 00:17:26.51000:17:26.520 about 70 to 80 percent of existing 00:17:29.72000:17:29.730 vehicles can be replaced with electric 00:17:31.64000:17:31.650 cars by 2050 we've now connected wind 00:17:36.20000:17:36.210 and solar power via electricity through 00:17:39.38000:17:39.390 an electric vehicle to the mobility 00:17:41.54000:17:41.550 sector and this is really really 00:17:43.46000:17:43.470 important because now I'm replacing 00:17:45.56000:17:45.570 liquid fuel that would otherwise have to 00:17:47.69000:17:47.700 come from either oil or a biofuel so I'm 00:17:50.60000:17:50.610 replacing the liquid fuel from a 00:17:53.21000:17:53.220 combustion engine with electricity 00:17:55.13000:17:55.140 that's produced by wind or solar power 00:17:58.10000:17:58.110 so this is my step number 6 electric 00:18:01.22000:18:01.230 vehicles when I do this these are the 00:18:05.75000:18:05.760 two vehicles have batteries which means 00:18:07.64000:18:07.650 they introduce some flexibility which 00:18:09.77000:18:09.780 means it's easier to integrate more wind 00:18:11.96000:18:11.970 and solar power so when I carried out 00:18:14.18000:18:14.190 all of these steps that are presented to 00:18:16.10000:18:16.110 you so far you could provide about 55 to 00:18:19.82000:18:19.830 60% of your electricity demand from wind 00:18:23.51000:18:23.520 and solar and when I say 55 to 60 00:18:26.54000:18:26.550 percent I also AM including the extra 00:18:29.81000:18:29.820 electricity demands we have from the 00:18:32.30000:18:32.310 electric vehicles and from the heat 00:18:33.80000:18:33.810 pumps that we've we've introduced into 00:18:36.38000:18:36.390 the system so now we're at a situation 00:18:39.74000:18:39.750 where we have quite a lot of renewable 00:18:42.95000:18:42.960 energy in our end user demands our heat 00:18:46.31000:18:46.320 sector now is very renewable with a lot 00:18:48.80000:18:48.810 of bioenergy in the CHP plants wind and 00:18:51.38000:18:51.390 solar and the heat pumps lots of 00:18:53.15000:18:53.160 flexibility going on with the thermal 00:18:54.89000:18:54.900 storage and we've also introduced some 00:18:57.23000:18:57.240 renewable 00:18:57.77900:18:57.789 in the individual Harris via electric 00:18:59.94000:18:59.950 vehicles the big challenge when we get 00:19:02.82000:19:02.830 to this stage of transition is replacing 00:19:06.02900:19:06.039 the energy dense fuels in the trucks the 00:19:08.94000:19:08.950 airplanes and the ships so how do we 00:19:11.12900:19:11.139 replace those liquid and gas fuels that 00:19:13.71000:19:13.720 are used for the heavy transport like 00:19:16.25900:19:16.269 trucks and airplanes and ships and the 00:19:19.25900:19:19.269 key technology that we see in providing 00:19:21.98900:19:21.999 this is something called sin Pesek fuels 00:19:29.77900:19:29.789 and these are a type of fuel that use 00:19:35.96900:19:35.979 electricity so to create a synthetic 00:19:39.38900:19:39.399 fuel I use some electricity that 00:19:43.88900:19:43.899 electricity produces some hydrogen I 00:19:46.48900:19:46.499 combined that hydrogen with some carbon 00:19:48.98900:19:48.999 that I capture from a power plant for 00:19:51.26900:19:51.279 example are from industry are from a bio 00:19:53.43000:19:53.440 energy source so I produce some hydrogen 00:19:56.66900:19:56.679 with electricity combine it with some 00:19:58.88900:19:58.899 carbon and from that combination of 00:20:01.83000:20:01.840 carbon and hydrogen I can produce some 00:20:05.70000:20:05.710 form of hydrocarbon which goes into a 00:20:08.96900:20:08.979 combustion engine so it can be a liquid 00:20:11.54900:20:11.559 hydrocarbon like oil is it can be a 00:20:14.09900:20:14.109 gaseous hydrocarbons an actual gases and 00:20:17.65900:20:17.669 so in other words what I've done now is 00:20:20.07000:20:20.080 I've connected wind and solar to the 00:20:24.62900:20:24.639 heavy duty transport via the production 00:20:27.47900:20:27.489 of synthetic fuels so I'm now connecting 00:20:30.89900:20:30.909 an intermittent renewable resource like 00:20:32.99900:20:33.009 wind and solar to heavy dense energy 00:20:36.50900:20:36.519 dense transport use so these fuels here 00:20:41.41900:20:41.429 are currently only a demonstration stage 00:20:44.43000:20:44.440 but most of the individual technologies 00:20:47.03900:20:47.049 required to produce them are very much 00:20:49.58900:20:49.599 underway - to development so there's 00:20:52.40900:20:52.419 different places that the hydrogen will 00:20:54.33000:20:54.340 have to come from electrolyzers that use 00:20:56.90900:20:56.919 electricity from the wind and solar and 00:20:58.79900:20:58.809 the carbon one can come from a variety 00:21:00.77900:21:00.789 of different sources 00:21:02.44000:21:02.450 such as biomass such as industry such as 00:21:05.26000:21:05.270 the air such as the power plant exhaust 00:21:07.54000:21:07.550 and so on now that means that one really 00:21:11.68000:21:11.690 significant change that has happened 00:21:13.24000:21:13.250 here is I'm now able to get my very 00:21:16.24000:21:16.250 sustainable wind and solar resource into 00:21:19.42000:21:19.430 the heavy duty transport and 00:21:21.09000:21:21.100 significantly reducing the dependency on 00:21:24.37000:21:24.380 bio energy today fossil fuels but the 00:21:28.63000:21:28.640 other very very important side effect is 00:21:31.18000:21:31.190 that when I do this when I produce these 00:21:34.21000:21:34.220 fuels with electricity and so on I now 00:21:37.57000:21:37.580 get access to fuel storage and this is 00:21:45.34000:21:45.350 extremely important I can now use fuel 00:21:48.67000:21:48.680 storage in my system now by fuel storage 00:21:52.24000:21:52.250 I mean for example today we see a lot of 00:21:54.61000:21:54.620 big containers that contain oil large 00:21:57.49000:21:57.500 amounts of oil and these big containers 00:21:59.94000:21:59.950 contain a very large amount of energy so 00:22:03.22000:22:03.230 in for example Denmark there is 50 00:22:06.10000:22:06.110 terawatt-hours that's 50 terawatt-hours 00:22:09.60000:22:09.610 of oil storage in Denmark at the same 00:22:15.01000:22:15.020 time 00:22:15.67000:22:15.680 Denmark's annual electricity demand a 00:22:18.10000:22:18.110 total amount of electricity that's used 00:22:19.90000:22:19.910 in Denmark all year round is about 35 00:22:23.14000:22:23.150 terawatt-hours that means that there's 00:22:26.26000:22:26.270 no more oil storage in Denmark then the 00:22:28.87000:22:28.880 total electricity demand consumed over 00:22:31.33000:22:31.340 the whole year now this is very 00:22:33.61000:22:33.620 significant because it means that when I 00:22:35.65000:22:35.660 connect the electricity sector to 00:22:38.35000:22:38.360 synthetic fuels and the fuel storage 00:22:40.87000:22:40.880 system 00:22:41.62000:22:41.630 I now have introduced huge amounts of 00:22:44.80000:22:44.810 flexibility within the conversion per 00:22:47.17000:22:47.180 side of the energy system so when the 00:22:49.57000:22:49.580 wind is blowing too much I can easily 00:22:52.06000:22:52.070 produce some synthetic fuels which I can 00:22:54.28000:22:54.290 then put into a storage tank and keep 00:22:56.38000:22:56.390 for a time that I need them I've now 00:22:58.45000:22:58.460 connected intermittent resources to an 00:23:01.18000:23:01.190 extremely large amount of cheap 00:23:04.35000:23:04.360 affordable energy storage so this 00:23:07.83000:23:07.840 flexibility that I removed when I 00:23:10.24000:23:10.250 reader the fossil fuels has now been 00:23:12.52000:23:12.530 reintroduced in the conversion end of 00:23:15.19000:23:15.200 the energy system where I can now easily 00:23:17.38000:23:17.390 integrate very large amounts of wind and 00:23:20.40900:23:20.419 solar due to all of this flexibility 00:23:22.77900:23:22.789 that I've now really introduced back 00:23:24.88000:23:24.890 into the system when I do this step 00:23:28.96000:23:28.970 number seven that I've now changed 00:23:31.33000:23:31.340 I can now supply approximately 80% of my 00:23:36.73000:23:36.740 electricity demands from wind and solar 00:23:39.82000:23:39.830 and that's 80 percent of the total 00:23:42.85000:23:42.860 electricity demand so it includes the 00:23:45.27900:23:45.289 extra electricity that I need to produce 00:23:47.47000:23:47.480 these synthetic fuels you can now see 00:23:51.27900:23:51.289 that the energy system is far more 00:23:53.14000:23:53.150 complex especially in the conversion 00:23:55.77900:23:55.789 side of the energy system than it was 00:23:58.41900:23:58.429 when we began and we estimate that using 00:24:01.51000:24:01.520 the energy plan model that we've 00:24:04.06000:24:04.070 developed at Auburn University and this 00:24:06.52000:24:06.530 concept of smart energy systems which we 00:24:08.74000:24:08.750 try to model and analyze that we can 00:24:11.20000:24:11.210 achieve a 100% renewable energy system 00:24:14.08000:24:14.090 without overusing the bio energy 00:24:17.64900:24:17.659 resource we have available to us today 00:24:19.53900:24:19.549 and we can do that without increasing 00:24:23.08000:24:23.090 the costs of energy in the year 2050 we 00:24:26.47000:24:26.480 estimate that a maximum increase of 00:24:28.69000:24:28.700 about 10% in our energy costs will occur 00:24:31.12000:24:31.130 but that's been very let's say on the 00:24:34.36000:24:34.370 pessimistic side there's many 00:24:36.07000:24:36.080 assumptions that indicate it may be a 00:24:38.26000:24:38.270 relatively similar price for energy in 00:24:40.87000:24:40.880 the future as it is if we you depend on 00:24:43.27000:24:43.280 fossil fuels so the first thing I want 00:24:46.69000:24:46.700 to emphasize once again is that this is 00:24:48.54900:24:48.559 a 100 percent renewable energy system 00:24:51.13000:24:51.140 that uses so much wind and solar that we 00:24:53.98000:24:53.990 don't over consume the bio energy 00:24:56.44000:24:56.450 resource the next key point is that the 00:25:00.31000:25:00.320 cost of energy in this system is not 00:25:03.03900:25:03.049 significantly higher than the cost would 00:25:05.38000:25:05.390 be if we stayed relying on fossil fuels 00:25:08.26000:25:08.270 and the final very important point that 00:25:11.02000:25:11.030 you need to acknowledge when you see 00:25:13.45000:25:13.460 this type of system is that the costs 00:25:16.60000:25:16.610 might be relatively similar but the 00:25:18.76000:25:18.770 structure of the cost 00:25:20.18000:25:20.190 has changed dramatically in this system 00:25:22.65900:25:22.669 compared to a fossil fuel world 00:25:25.24000:25:25.250 especially if you're living in a country 00:25:27.61900:25:27.629 or a region that imports a lots of its 00:25:30.37900:25:30.389 fossil fuels for example if we take the 00:25:32.96000:25:32.970 European Union right now the European 00:25:35.26900:25:35.279 Union imports a lot of its fossil fuels 00:25:37.65900:25:37.669 intimates into the region this means 00:25:40.87900:25:40.889 that a lot of money is exported out of 00:25:43.39900:25:43.409 the European Union to other countries 00:25:45.40900:25:45.419 where we need to get those fossil fuels 00:25:47.53900:25:47.549 into the European Union 00:25:49.34000:25:49.350 income in contrast if we have a smart 00:25:52.31000:25:52.320 energy system very little of the energy 00:25:55.07000:25:55.080 system is dependent on fossil fuels in 00:25:57.40900:25:57.419 fact in this situation we have no fossil 00:25:59.41900:25:59.429 fuels and instead we're depending on 00:26:01.66900:26:01.679 local bioenergy which is developed 00:26:04.10000:26:04.110 inside the European Union we also have a 00:26:06.79900:26:06.809 lot of infrastructure that were now 00:26:08.38900:26:08.399 developing locally so instead of 00:26:11.02900:26:11.039 spending money importing fuels we're now 00:26:13.61000:26:13.620 spending money developing local 00:26:15.59000:26:15.600 infrastructure we're building new CSP 00:26:17.89900:26:17.909 plants were building new supplies of 00:26:20.06000:26:20.070 Heath Billy new supplies of electricity 00:26:22.12900:26:22.139 continue heat pumps in the building's 00:26:24.35000:26:24.360 making the buildings more efficient 00:26:26.33000:26:26.340 reducing the need for oil by developing 00:26:29.24000:26:29.250 some electric vehicles building you 00:26:31.31000:26:31.320 synthetic fuel plants these are all 00:26:33.25900:26:33.269 local investments so we expect that even 00:26:36.95000:26:36.960 though the costs of the energy are very 00:26:38.77900:26:38.789 similar the amount of jobs that you 00:26:40.97000:26:40.980 create with a smart energy system far 00:26:43.90900:26:43.919 exceed the amount of jobs that currently 00:26:46.27900:26:46.289 exists in a fossil fuel energy system 00:26:48.98000:26:48.990 and that is really good news because it 00:26:51.86000:26:51.870 means we can be 100% renewable without 00:26:54.76900:26:54.779 overusing our bio energy we can do that 00:26:57.61900:26:57.629 without significantly increasing the 00:26:59.38900:26:59.399 cost of energy and we can do it by 00:27:01.51900:27:01.529 creating a lot of local jobs this is the 00:27:04.58000:27:04.590 type of analysis that we quantify in our 00:27:07.22000:27:07.230 research group at Auburn University and 00:27:09.32000:27:09.330 you can read many of our publications on 00:27:11.62900:27:11.639 our website energy plan bu 00:27:14.14900:27:14.159 you can also freely download the model 00:27:16.12900:27:16.139 we have developed to model these types 00:27:17.74900:27:17.759 of energy systems and perhaps carry out 00:27:19.99900:27:20.009 a smart energy system analysis of your 00:27:22.51900:27:22.529 own country thank you for listening and 00:27:24.64900:27:24.659 I hope you enjoyed the video
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