Webinar - The Future of Petrochemicals

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00:00:00.030
the broadcast is now starting all
00:00:02.210 00:00:02.220 attendees are in listen-only mode
00:00:13.680 00:00:13.690 good afternoon and good morning all of
00:00:16.769 00:00:16.779 you welcome to this webinar systems and
00:00:20.010 00:00:20.020 lunch the future of petrochemicals
00:00:21.420 00:00:21.430 report from the IEA we are ready to get
00:00:25.200 00:00:25.210 started but we like to hold for a couple
00:00:28.319 00:00:28.329 of minutes to allow for more
00:00:29.519 00:00:29.529 stakeholders and colleagues to to join
00:00:32.069 00:00:32.079 the lunch webinar as well so if you
00:00:34.380 00:00:34.390 could please halt with us for a couple
00:00:35.940 00:00:35.950 of minutes we'll get started very
00:00:38.069 00:00:38.079 shortly thank you
00:02:33.140 00:02:33.150 good afternoon we will start the session
00:02:36.500 00:02:36.510 on the future of petro chemical which
00:02:40.250 00:02:40.260 the International age Energy Agency just
00:02:43.460 00:02:43.470 produced my name is mr. Christopher I'm
00:02:46.070 00:02:46.080 the new director for the dr4 ia on the
00:02:51.789 00:02:51.799 sustainability technology and outlooks -
00:02:55.729 00:02:55.739 and I'm here with the authors of the
00:02:58.550 00:02:58.560 report which is araceli fernandez Perez
00:03:02.289 00:03:02.299 Peter Levi and tae Yun Kim and we all
00:03:06.199 00:03:06.209 together now for you to present and at
00:03:08.839 00:03:08.849 the end of the presentation also be
00:03:11.300 00:03:11.310 available for Question and Answer so I
00:03:14.030 00:03:14.040 will start with a few slides to to give
00:03:16.819 00:03:16.829 the background of the IEA as you know
00:03:19.850 00:03:19.860 the International Energy Agency is an
00:03:22.880 00:03:22.890 autonomous organization that works
00:03:25.400 00:03:25.410 around the world and it's there to
00:03:28.190 00:03:28.200 support accelerated clean energy
00:03:31.220 00:03:31.230 transitions with unparalleled
00:03:33.410 00:03:33.420 data rigorous analysis and real-world
00:03:36.350 00:03:36.360 solution so this is a well-known feature
00:03:41.180 00:03:41.190 for the IEA we have also in our mission
00:03:44.569 00:03:44.579 today there are three further core
00:03:47.930 00:03:47.940 priorities where we are working on which
00:03:50.750 00:03:50.760 is the economic development that means
00:03:53.150 00:03:53.160 supporting free markets to foster
00:03:55.550 00:03:55.560 economic growth and eliminate energy
00:03:58.069 00:03:58.079 poverty globally the second one being
00:04:02.379 00:04:02.389 environmental awareness so analyzing
00:04:05.120 00:04:05.130 policy options to offset the impact of
00:04:07.699 00:04:07.709 energy production and use on the
00:04:09.650 00:04:09.660 environment especially for tackling
00:04:11.870 00:04:11.880 climate change and air pollution which
00:04:14.270 00:04:14.280 is also relevant theme in this
00:04:15.920 00:04:15.930 particular report and then engagement
00:04:18.650 00:04:18.660 worldwide working closely with partner
00:04:21.650 00:04:21.660 countries especially with emerging
00:04:23.960 00:04:23.970 economies to find solution to share
00:04:26.570 00:04:26.580 energy and environment concerns so the
00:04:30.200 00:04:30.210 whole ia clover family includes now 30
00:04:33.260 00:04:33.270 member states or member countries as
00:04:35.710 00:04:35.720 well as Association and partner
00:04:39.830 00:04:39.840 countries with which is working closely
00:04:42.170 00:04:42.180 on this area
00:04:48.980 00:04:48.990 the ia also then engages with numbers
00:04:53.540 00:04:53.550 countries around the globe to collect
00:04:56.340 00:04:56.350 energy data and information so you can
00:04:58.650 00:04:58.660 see it on the last slide in which
00:05:01.500 00:05:01.510 country it's the members the partners
00:05:03.420 00:05:03.430 the Association and the data coverage
00:05:10.220 00:05:10.230 for today you will see that the ia
00:05:14.700 00:05:14.710 launched last year in fact what we call
00:05:18.210 00:05:18.220 the future of series which in 2017 and
00:05:22.140 00:05:22.150 the main objective is to look what we
00:05:25.290 00:05:25.300 call key lines including energy these
00:05:30.300 00:05:30.310 are mainly area which are important for
00:05:33.060 00:05:33.070 the energy system but in our view they
00:05:36.630 00:05:36.640 don't get enough attention as they
00:05:38.670 00:05:38.680 deserve given that they have a few
00:05:42.930 00:05:42.940 future or current important role to play
00:05:46.140 00:05:46.150 in the energy system and in the economy
00:05:49.200 00:05:49.210 so we started with these series in 2017
00:05:52.620 00:05:52.630 and we have already published relatively
00:05:56.670 00:05:56.680 recently a publication on the future of
00:05:58.980 00:05:58.990 trucks which was presented last year
00:06:02.420 00:06:02.430 then one on cooling focusing on air
00:06:05.790 00:06:05.800 conditioning and now as you will see the
00:06:08.880 00:06:08.890 future of petrochemicals which we also
00:06:11.280 00:06:11.290 thought is a real important area where
00:06:14.940 00:06:14.950 we haven't had enough thought or data or
00:06:18.360 00:06:18.370 which is worth now and really presented
00:06:20.850 00:06:20.860 in this report today with that I pass
00:06:24.480 00:06:24.490 the floor to Araceli thank you very much
00:06:28.920 00:06:28.930 and I just wanted to thank all the
00:06:32.280 00:06:32.290 different colleagues that participated
00:06:35.130 00:06:35.140 in this in this piece of analysis over
00:06:37.200 00:06:37.210 the last year which on the three
00:06:39.120 00:06:39.130 colleagues that we will presenting today
00:06:40.620 00:06:40.630 many of them participated but couldn't
00:06:43.710 00:06:43.720 join us today
00:06:45.030 00:06:45.040 and also as well all the different
00:06:47.370 00:06:47.380 terminal stakeholders that have been
00:06:48.840 00:06:48.850 supporting our work through different
00:06:50.430 00:06:50.440 mediums workshops webinars and different
00:06:53.190 00:06:53.200 engagement opportunities as well as
00:06:55.290 00:06:55.300 information so
00:06:57.990 00:06:58.000 part of the of the webinar is going to
00:07:00.180 00:07:00.190 focus on putting the petrochemical
00:07:01.920 00:07:01.930 sector in context today related to how
00:07:05.730 00:07:05.740 basically it interacts with society with
00:07:08.880 00:07:08.890 the energy system and as well with with
00:07:11.340 00:07:11.350 environment so set of chemical products
00:07:15.900 00:07:15.910 are all around us from the everyday
00:07:18.870 00:07:18.880 items to components of transportation
00:07:21.120 00:07:21.130 and infrastructure our modern society is
00:07:23.700 00:07:23.710 highly dependent on petrochemicals
00:07:25.880 00:07:25.890 things that you find around common
00:07:28.830 00:07:28.840 office many personal items such as
00:07:30.990 00:07:31.000 toiletries medical equipment which you
00:07:33.150 00:07:33.160 tell devices and clothing also many
00:07:35.700 00:07:35.710 building materials such as PVC plastic
00:07:38.070 00:07:38.080 pipes and windows products that are
00:07:41.490 00:07:41.500 integral to our food supply are also
00:07:43.880 00:07:43.890 integrated or related to petrochemical
00:07:46.050 00:07:46.060 products for instance around half of the
00:07:48.690 00:07:48.700 world's food production is facilitated
00:07:50.820 00:07:50.830 by synthetic nitrogen fertilizers nearly
00:07:53.700 00:07:53.710 all of which are made of from oil and
00:07:56.820 00:07:56.830 gas which on the production phase the
00:07:59.640 00:07:59.650 world is consuming increasing quantities
00:08:01.800 00:08:01.810 of plastic packaging as well and for
00:08:04.770 00:08:04.780 instance it was recently estimated that
00:08:06.510 00:08:06.520 around 1 million bottles of plastic are
00:08:10.170 00:08:10.180 consumed every minute many elements of
00:08:14.640 00:08:14.650 the transportation system also rely on
00:08:17.130 00:08:17.140 petrochemical products tiles batteries
00:08:19.560 00:08:19.570 many other vehicle components also made
00:08:22.140 00:08:22.150 of synthetic rubber and plastic
00:08:25.550 00:08:25.560 petrochemicals will also have or be
00:08:28.950 00:08:28.960 instrumental in developing many of the
00:08:31.469 00:08:31.479 advanced materials that will support the
00:08:33.209 00:08:33.219 energy transition such as those using
00:08:35.550 00:08:35.560 winter event blades or solar panels
00:08:38.899 00:08:38.909 despite these products being all around
00:08:41.520 00:08:41.530 us the petrochemical sector is one of
00:08:43.829 00:08:43.839 the key blind spots in the global energy
00:08:45.450 00:08:45.460 system as Michelle was highlighting
00:08:48.090 00:08:48.100 before and this publication like others
00:08:50.790 00:08:50.800 before that have been mentioned within
00:08:52.590 00:08:52.600 this series I really trying to shed
00:08:54.780 00:08:54.790 light on these topics that deserves more
00:08:57.570 00:08:57.580 attention but having been paid the level
00:09:01.350 00:09:01.360 of of the analytical attention yet
00:09:06.320 00:09:06.330 petrochemicals having growing fast and
00:09:09.079 00:09:09.089 and
00:09:11.000 00:09:11.010 millennium several mag materials such as
00:09:12.980 00:09:12.990 aluminium cement who broadly in line
00:09:16.220 00:09:16.230 with GDP China's wealth after the
00:09:18.830 00:09:18.840 Millennium led to accelerating demand
00:09:21.170 00:09:21.180 for these materials to fuel a wave of
00:09:23.600 00:09:23.610 construction and infrastructure projects
00:09:25.430 00:09:25.440 and support a growing manufacturing base
00:09:28.780 00:09:28.790 plastics which is a key product a key
00:09:31.730 00:09:31.740 group of products related to
00:09:34.370 00:09:34.380 petrochemicals demand high grown faster
00:09:37.370 00:09:37.380 than any other group of bulk materials
00:09:39.770 00:09:39.780 production volumes have increased more
00:09:42.290 00:09:42.300 than tenfold since 1970 and the man has
00:09:45.260 00:09:45.270 more than doubled since the Millennium
00:09:46.960 00:09:46.970 this is explained by the fact that since
00:09:49.580 00:09:49.590 Amos is the middle of the last century
00:09:51.140 00:09:51.150 plastics have become assistive for
00:09:54.890 00:09:54.900 several others traditional materials
00:09:56.450 00:09:56.460 particularly in the packaging ultimately
00:09:58.370 00:09:58.380 and construction and new sectors as we
00:10:00.980 00:10:00.990 were discussing before acquiring grain
00:10:02.540 00:10:02.550 in our society today this is also
00:10:05.480 00:10:05.490 because plastics are often cheaper and
00:10:07.280 00:10:07.290 the rest italic disability means that
00:10:09.530 00:10:09.540 they can offer highly tailor material
00:10:11.570 00:10:11.580 properties for a given application if we
00:10:17.120 00:10:17.130 stick with plastics and look a bit in
00:10:19.430 00:10:19.440 more detail to this segment of demand
00:10:21.050 00:10:21.060 this group of materials will continue to
00:10:23.240 00:10:23.250 be a key demand driver for this sector
00:10:26.860 00:10:26.870 advanced economies such as United States
00:10:29.330 00:10:29.340 Canada Korea consume up to twenty times
00:10:32.180 00:10:32.190 as much plastic as developing economies
00:10:34.190 00:10:34.200 such as India and many countries in
00:10:36.320 00:10:36.330 Africa plastic demand is driven in part
00:10:39.140 00:10:39.150 by domestic manufacturing industries but
00:10:41.660 00:10:41.670 also by store markets for instance in in
00:10:43.970 00:10:43.980 2016 Shelby Arabia and the United States
00:10:47.030 00:10:47.040 we're the largest exporters of
00:10:48.380 00:10:48.390 polyethylene I keep plastic resin
00:10:50.360 00:10:50.370 juiced across a range of products and
00:10:52.100 00:10:52.110 Industry so with this with this context
00:10:57.520 00:10:57.530 of expected growth the petrochemical
00:11:01.790 00:11:01.800 sector when we look at how it's linked
00:11:04.010 00:11:04.020 to the energy systems is the largest
00:11:05.930 00:11:05.940 industrial user of oil and gas they
00:11:08.660 00:11:08.670 account petrochemicals today for 14
00:11:11.570 00:11:11.580 percent of global oil demand
00:11:13.250 00:11:13.260 ranking second behind transport also in
00:11:16.490 00:11:16.500 terms of gas petrochemicals currently
00:11:18.170 00:11:18.180 represents 8 percent of the gas demand
00:11:20.540 00:11:20.550 globally
00:11:25.240 00:11:25.250 half of the chemical sector today energy
00:11:29.840 00:11:29.850 total energy inputs relate to feedstock
00:11:32.600 00:11:32.610 so half of the total energy inputs
00:11:34.129 00:11:34.139 they're going into this specific sector
00:11:36.379 00:11:36.389 I'm related to fuels that are used as
00:11:39.139 00:11:39.149 material inputs to confirm the final
00:11:41.000 00:11:41.010 products from this more than 90 percent
00:11:45.410 00:11:45.420 come from oil and gas so in this diagram
00:11:47.930 00:11:47.940 we're showing how oil gas but also call
00:11:50.780 00:11:50.790 I used as raw materials to produce
00:11:53.120 00:11:53.130 different primary chemicals that are
00:11:54.769 00:11:54.779 then converted into farther downstream
00:11:56.210 00:11:56.220 chemical commodities and ultimately
00:11:58.790 00:11:58.800 consumer goods such as fertilizers
00:12:00.550 00:12:00.560 plastics rubber etc oil is the
00:12:04.189 00:12:04.199 predominant feedstock for what we call
00:12:05.900 00:12:05.910 high-value chemicals which are the main
00:12:07.850 00:12:07.860 precursors of plastic that you can see
00:12:10.639 00:12:10.649 as dark blue in the diagram whereas the
00:12:13.490 00:12:13.500 gas and coal I used typically for
00:12:15.199 00:12:15.209 ammonia and methanol all together
00:12:17.720 00:12:17.730 high-value chemicals ammonia and
00:12:19.790 00:12:19.800 methanol accounted for around two-thirds
00:12:21.740 00:12:21.750 of a total energy demand that goes into
00:12:24.530 00:12:24.540 the chemical sector if we look at some
00:12:29.300 00:12:29.310 of the regional differences in how the
00:12:30.710 00:12:30.720 petrochemical industry is distributed
00:12:33.439 00:12:33.449 across regions we can really say that no
00:12:35.509 00:12:35.519 one-size-fits-all asia-pacific
00:12:40.519 00:12:40.529 particularly China dominates global
00:12:42.439 00:12:42.449 primary chemical production accounting
00:12:44.300 00:12:44.310 for half of the world complete output
00:12:47.949 00:12:47.959 Europe North America and the Middle East
00:12:50.300 00:12:50.310 are also important regions together
00:12:51.889 00:12:51.899 accounting for most of the rest if you
00:12:55.100 00:12:55.110 look at how primary chemical production
00:12:56.870 00:12:56.880 translates into feedstock used then we
00:13:00.590 00:13:00.600 can also see that there are significant
00:13:02.120 00:13:02.130 differences across regions and with the
00:13:05.540 00:13:05.550 different sources of feedstock we
00:13:08.120 00:13:08.130 induced to produce those those chemicals
00:13:11.170 00:13:11.180 if we focus now in the four key regions
00:13:14.449 00:13:14.459 in terms of size North America Europe
00:13:16.340 00:13:16.350 Middle East and Asia Pacific then we can
00:13:19.730 00:13:19.740 see that along with the Middle East the
00:13:21.800 00:13:21.810 United States has a feedstock advantage
00:13:24.290 00:13:24.300 in its access to low-cost
00:13:25.790 00:13:25.800 ethan or when to its abundant natural
00:13:27.860 00:13:27.870 gas supplies and the shale revolution in
00:13:30.860 00:13:30.870 contrast asia pacific and also europe
00:13:33.019 00:13:33.029 rely predominantly on naphtha where the
00:13:36.139 00:13:36.149 spread between the prices of natural gas
00:13:37.819 00:13:37.829 liquids
00:13:38.310 00:13:38.320 and crude is large this puts this region
00:13:40.500 00:13:40.510 has a pizza disadvantage China
00:13:43.290 00:13:43.300 constitutes archaea dire needs choice of
00:13:45.420 00:13:45.430 pizza for ammonia and methanol
00:13:46.800 00:13:46.810 production which is the use of coal and
00:13:49.520 00:13:49.530 around a quarter of primary chemical
00:13:51.960 00:13:51.970 production from asia-pacific and
00:13:54.180 00:13:54.190 specifically China is based on on call
00:13:59.690 00:13:59.700 these differences that we describe in
00:14:02.070 00:14:02.080 terms of the fixed of shortages to
00:14:03.840 00:14:03.850 produce these levels of primary chemical
00:14:05.250 00:14:05.260 I own in part to this regional cost
00:14:09.020 00:14:09.030 differences as well different choices on
00:14:13.350 00:14:13.360 feedstock across regions are reflection
00:14:15.270 00:14:15.280 of the big contribution of feedstock
00:14:16.800 00:14:16.810 costs the production cost as well as the
00:14:19.230 00:14:19.240 differences that we that are observed in
00:14:21.210 00:14:21.220 feedstock availability at an
00:14:22.980 00:14:22.990 advantageous cost in this light we are
00:14:25.590 00:14:25.600 displaying the simplified levelized cost
00:14:27.780 00:14:27.790 of high-value chemicals that include
00:14:30.000 00:14:30.010 ethylene propylene and aromatics for
00:14:32.760 00:14:32.770 different food stocks and across
00:14:33.840 00:14:33.850 different regions the Middle East and
00:14:35.910 00:14:35.920 the u.s. remained the regions who are
00:14:37.350 00:14:37.360 producing these commodities from evening
00:14:39.540 00:14:39.550 is more advantages whereas naphtha based
00:14:42.060 00:14:42.070 production is less economical that
00:14:43.500 00:14:43.510 dominance in other regions due to their
00:14:45.210 00:14:45.220 limited access to lighter feedstock the
00:14:48.930 00:14:48.940 feedstocks choice doesn't not only
00:14:50.550 00:14:50.560 impact cost but also process yields or
00:14:53.670 00:14:53.680 the amount said in other words the
00:14:55.710 00:14:55.720 amount that of product that can be
00:14:57.390 00:14:57.400 obtained per unit of being consumed
00:15:00.050 00:15:00.060 typically higher overall deals are
00:15:02.370 00:15:02.380 obtained at the expense of a balanced
00:15:04.080 00:15:04.090 product profile while even offers the
00:15:06.660 00:15:06.670 higher juice on a per ton of high-value
00:15:08.790 00:15:08.800 chemical products among other filter
00:15:11.280 00:15:11.290 options for sting cracking if the
00:15:12.960 00:15:12.970 leaders at the same time a mix of
00:15:14.520 00:15:14.530 high-value chemicals containing around
00:15:16.530 00:15:16.540 80 percent of ethylene which means that
00:15:19.190 00:15:19.200 the final mix of products could be more
00:15:21.990 00:15:22.000 rich in ethylene and then other options
00:15:23.970 00:15:23.980 with or might be needed to really
00:15:26.220 00:15:26.230 compensate for that distribution of
00:15:28.290 00:15:28.300 products I'm gonna make a stop here and
00:15:32.760 00:15:32.770 we are gonna discuss a little bit what
00:15:34.770 00:15:34.780 are the interactions and the impacts
00:15:36.420 00:15:36.430 from the earth supply side of things at
00:15:39.090 00:15:39.100 this point I'm gonna give the floor to
00:15:40.890 00:15:40.900 my colleague Teijin Kim which has been
00:15:44.220 00:15:44.230 also participating and polarizing this
00:15:47.070 00:15:47.080 I'm sorry with growing demand for
00:15:51.390 00:15:51.400 petrochemical product
00:15:52.530 00:15:52.540 oil companies especially the refining
00:15:54.330 00:15:54.340 industry I increasingly of pending in
00:15:56.610 00:15:56.620 the petrochemical is through refining
00:15:59.400 00:15:59.410 petrochemical integration the current
00:16:02.130 00:16:02.140 interest in petrochemical instigation
00:16:04.020 00:16:04.030 reflect a preoccupation in the deepening
00:16:06.270 00:16:06.280 the statistical higher and resilient
00:16:09.000 00:16:09.010 sources of become higher
00:16:11.340 00:16:11.350 in recent years margins from selling
00:16:14.190 00:16:14.200 transport pure such as gathering and DJ
00:16:16.440 00:16:16.450 are narrowing down and selling
00:16:18.450 00:16:18.460 petrochemical feedstock is not very
00:16:20.700 00:16:20.710 profitable for companies however as
00:16:23.820 00:16:23.830 shown in the chart producing
00:16:25.650 00:16:25.660 petrochemicals can offer better margins
00:16:28.020 00:16:28.030 than yours offering a better sense for
00:16:30.750 00:16:30.760 companies to raise profitability and
00:16:33.020 00:16:33.030 resilient while oil demand for other
00:16:36.120 00:16:36.130 sectors is increasingly challenged by a
00:16:38.730 00:16:38.740 combination of efficiency improvement
00:16:40.500 00:16:40.510 pure switching and electrification
00:16:43.130 00:16:43.140 demands prospects for petrochemicals
00:16:45.810 00:16:45.820 remain relatively robust set of
00:16:48.540 00:16:48.550 chemicals can also provide a good hedge
00:16:51.470 00:16:51.480 against the list of a possible
00:16:53.940 00:16:53.950 construction of oil demand in a row
00:16:55.680 00:16:55.690 carbon scenarios such as a clean tech
00:16:57.600 00:16:57.610 transition area which explains one of
00:17:00.510 00:17:00.520 the motivations behind the recent
00:17:02.010 00:17:02.020 expansion and the defining petrochemical
00:17:06.030 00:17:06.040 integration can also open some other
00:17:08.670 00:17:08.680 operational additional benefits however
00:17:12.860 00:17:12.870 the labor and types of integration
00:17:16.170 00:17:16.180 varies widely by regions for example in
00:17:20.490 00:17:20.500 the United States and the Middle East
00:17:21.960 00:17:21.970 where there are readily available supply
00:17:24.630 00:17:24.640 over ten years the this direct stream to
00:17:28.710 00:17:28.720 petrochemical out is a prevailing option
00:17:30.830 00:17:30.840 this is more like the business
00:17:32.820 00:17:32.830 integration many oil companies who
00:17:35.550 00:17:35.560 produce NGS have also invested in
00:17:38.420 00:17:38.430 chemical production facilities
00:17:40.200 00:17:40.210 facilities but there's no operational
00:17:43.290 00:17:43.300 overlap between facilities in other
00:17:45.990 00:17:46.000 regions where availability of NGS is
00:17:48.530 00:17:48.540 limited the case of operational
00:17:51.090 00:17:51.100 integration is strong China is an
00:17:54.630 00:17:54.640 interesting example in this regard
00:17:57.470 00:17:57.480 has the height to develop refining
00:17:59.930 00:17:59.940 petrochemical integration globally many
00:18:02.990 00:18:03.000 of the refining and petrochemical
00:18:04.070 00:18:04.080 facilities are sitting next to each
00:18:06.440 00:18:06.450 other who are closely integrated and in
00:18:09.710 00:18:09.720 China there are also an interesting
00:18:12.289 00:18:12.299 example of so-called divorce integration
00:18:14.539 00:18:14.549 where petrochemical companies are moving
00:18:17.080 00:18:17.090 upstream rather than be finally moving
00:18:19.430 00:18:19.440 downstream and there are even more
00:18:21.950 00:18:21.960 ambitious schemes being pursued in the
00:18:23.990 00:18:24.000 Middle East to bypass the refining
00:18:26.570 00:18:26.580 operation entirely and produce chemicals
00:18:29.180 00:18:29.190 directly from the crude oil some garam
00:18:32.810 00:18:32.820 Qin sabbith recently announced a larger
00:18:35.630 00:18:35.640 scale crude oil to chemical project or
00:18:38.440 00:18:38.450 400,000 barrels per day capacity it is
00:18:42.020 00:18:42.030 also developing a more ambitious schemes
00:18:44.720 00:18:44.730 aiming 70 80 % of chemical it whatever
00:18:49.370 00:18:49.380 libraries of types of education there
00:18:51.560 00:18:51.570 are what is sure is the role of oil
00:18:54.440 00:18:54.450 companies in the petrochemical sector is
00:18:57.200 00:18:57.210 said to increase over time
00:19:02.470 00:19:02.480 petrochemicals can also take on
00:19:04.549 00:19:04.559 environment at all the chemical sector
00:19:07.130 00:19:07.140 is the largest industrial energy
00:19:09.289 00:19:09.299 consumer ahead of iron and steel and
00:19:11.810 00:19:11.820 cement it accounts for around 10 percent
00:19:15.380 00:19:15.390 of total final energy consumption and
00:19:17.720 00:19:17.730 almost 30 percent of industrial final
00:19:20.450 00:19:20.460 energy consumption however the sector is
00:19:23.510 00:19:23.520 already the third largest sources of
00:19:26.090 00:19:26.100 industrial co2 emissions this is because
00:19:29.030 00:19:29.040 the modern hypo is energy input is used
00:19:31.730 00:19:31.740 as feedstock then therefore wrapped into
00:19:34.850 00:19:34.860 problems there are two takeaway from
00:19:38.390 00:19:38.400 this picture first
00:19:40.340 00:19:40.350 although P the stag input do not
00:19:42.740 00:19:42.750 contribute to increase in co2 emissions
00:19:44.960 00:19:44.970 as they allow in the product there is a
00:19:48.020 00:19:48.030 sphere a chance for these emissions to
00:19:50.510 00:19:50.520 be released during the use of certain
00:19:53.060 00:19:53.070 chemical product so effective management
00:19:55.940 00:19:55.950 of plastic waste or fertilizer waste is
00:19:58.760 00:19:58.770 very much important to avoid any
00:20:01.360 00:20:01.370 environmentally negative impact and
00:20:03.950 00:20:03.960 second all those of the sector is the
00:20:06.470 00:20:06.480 third largest here is the sector emit
00:20:08.899 00:20:08.909 around 1.5 gigatron of you
00:20:11.310 00:20:11.320 two per year or 18% of intellectual
00:20:14.760 00:20:14.770 tensions reducing these emissions is
00:20:17.760 00:20:17.770 critical to minimize the sector's
00:20:19.800 00:20:19.810 environmental toll on the economy
00:20:25.400 00:20:25.410 thank you very much taejun and so with
00:20:28.740 00:20:28.750 that we are going to enter into the next
00:20:30.870 00:20:30.880 section of the presentation which is
00:20:33.810 00:20:33.820 basically to go from the current
00:20:36.300 00:20:36.310 situation to starting exploring
00:20:38.610 00:20:38.620 different futures the first section
00:20:42.300 00:20:42.310 relates to the exploration of the what
00:20:44.820 00:20:44.830 we call the reference technology
00:20:46.110 00:20:46.120 scenario which is basically what the
00:20:48.000 00:20:48.010 current trajectory for the petrochemical
00:20:50.010 00:20:50.020 sector sector would be starting with
00:20:54.810 00:20:54.820 wisdom and we expect demand for plastics
00:20:57.630 00:20:57.640 one of the key demand drivers for the
00:20:59.910 00:20:59.920 petrochemical sector as with as we've
00:21:01.860 00:21:01.870 outlined to remain relatively robust
00:21:05.360 00:21:05.370 with production for key thermoplastics
00:21:07.890 00:21:07.900 more than doubling between 2020 2010 and
00:21:10.680 00:21:10.690 2050
00:21:11.630 00:21:11.640 especially as developing countries
00:21:13.620 00:21:13.630 increase their population and wealth
00:21:15.090 00:21:15.100 these materials will be increasingly
00:21:17.010 00:21:17.020 demanded particularly for packaging and
00:21:18.930 00:21:18.940 construction on a per capita basis the
00:21:22.620 00:21:22.630 demand for these plastics increases by
00:21:24.270 00:21:24.280 more than 50 percent and to complement
00:21:27.660 00:21:27.670 the analysis we've also undertaken or
00:21:31.380 00:21:31.390 developed a highly man science basically
00:21:34.530 00:21:34.540 to perform some sensitivity analysis
00:21:36.630 00:21:36.640 around the impacts that different levels
00:21:38.760 00:21:38.770 of demand could have in terms of
00:21:40.200 00:21:40.210 technology choices but also in terms of
00:21:42.630 00:21:42.640 energy energy demand and that high
00:21:46.500 00:21:46.510 demand violent the results around us
00:21:48.990 00:21:49.000 will be also by level on the website
00:21:51.450 00:21:51.460 very shortly in our very scenario only
00:21:56.520 00:21:56.530 man growth is fueled by four key drivers
00:21:59.190 00:21:59.200 and shipping
00:22:02.060 00:22:02.070 aviation growth rates and the largest
00:22:05.430 00:22:05.440 being petrochemicals all demand rises
00:22:08.340 00:22:08.350 around 10 million barrels per day by
00:22:11.580 00:22:11.590 2030 globally and we expect that from
00:22:15.450 00:22:15.460 that first petal of petrochemicals as
00:22:18.540 00:22:18.550 certainly would be the main contributor
00:22:20.490 00:22:20.500 with more than 1/3 to that to that
00:22:24.000 00:22:24.010 increase and increasing or representing
00:22:27.120 00:22:27.130 more than half of the growth that we
00:22:28.890 00:22:28.900 expect by 2050 looking at again what the
00:22:35.700 00:22:35.710 regional impact of this expected growth
00:22:38.760 00:22:38.770 would be in terms of where the main
00:22:41.100 00:22:41.110 producing the two centers would be and
00:22:46.220 00:22:46.230 China and the US see the largest Newton
00:22:49.410 00:22:49.420 capacity addition as a result of her
00:22:51.510 00:22:51.520 Fifth Circuit Vantage as with discussed
00:22:53.220 00:22:53.230 and a strong source of domestic demand
00:22:55.350 00:22:55.360 especially in the case of China
00:22:57.720 00:22:57.730 whereas in terms of long term growth
00:22:59.640 00:22:59.650 that would be led by Asia particularly
00:23:02.370 00:23:02.380 China and also the Middle East by 2050
00:23:05.970 00:23:05.980 Asia Pacific retained fill its position
00:23:08.730 00:23:08.740 of the world largest chemical producing
00:23:11.670 00:23:11.680 region by far and I would like to note
00:23:14.910 00:23:14.920 here that in this in this diagram shown
00:23:17.250 00:23:17.260 the graph that relates to the Asia
00:23:19.380 00:23:19.390 Pacific region which is shown in Ingrid
00:23:21.690 00:23:21.700 with a red label on the right has a
00:23:25.170 00:23:25.180 different scale which we truly intend
00:23:27.240 00:23:27.250 the rest of the graphs which really
00:23:28.410 00:23:28.420 indicates two different order of
00:23:30.750 00:23:30.760 magnitude in terms of the size compared
00:23:32.640 00:23:32.650 to other regions
00:23:35.720 00:23:35.730 again translating this these levels of
00:23:39.300 00:23:39.310 production or capacity additions in this
00:23:41.760 00:23:41.770 case to feedstock and focusing on the on
00:23:45.300 00:23:45.310 the key four regions and that we've been
00:23:48.120 00:23:48.130 highlighting and then we can see that in
00:23:52.410 00:23:52.420 terms of high-value chemicals again the
00:23:54.120 00:23:54.130 main precursors for plastics ethan
00:23:56.370 00:23:56.380 feedstock the consumption of fish and
00:23:59.160 00:23:59.170 pizza for high-value chemicals will grow
00:24:01.770 00:24:01.780 by 70 percent by 2030 in favor regions
00:24:06.420 00:24:06.430 and which basically are even being
00:24:08.910 00:24:08.920 displayed in in light blue in the in the
00:24:11.640 00:24:11.650 graph this is impaired due to demand for
00:24:15.060 00:24:15.070 exports to other regions such as Europe
00:24:17.060 00:24:17.070 but whoever in regions were continuing
00:24:20.220 00:24:20.230 strong growth in the long term or the
00:24:23.610 00:24:23.620 growth will continue strongly in the
00:24:25.860 00:24:25.870 long term then those regions would rely
00:24:27.810 00:24:27.820 mostly on on NASA and that is mainly
00:24:30.180 00:24:30.190 related to the fact that is in supply
00:24:33.420 00:24:33.430 as a result of flattening natural gas
00:24:35.280 00:24:35.290 liquids outfits from the US shale and
00:24:38.090 00:24:38.100 also we expect a stagnation of title
00:24:41.610 00:24:41.620 production in the second half of day of
00:24:43.260 00:24:43.270 the 2020s in the analysis in the report
00:24:45.870 00:24:45.880 you would also see that we've done a
00:24:47.610 00:24:47.620 specific assessment looking at whether
00:24:51.090 00:24:51.100 these considerations around the
00:24:52.560 00:24:52.570 availability of of evening could be more
00:24:57.300 00:24:57.310 optimistic and what would be the impact
00:24:59.190 00:24:59.200 as well and and certainly I mean the
00:25:02.040 00:25:02.050 trigger for this was the the appetite of
00:25:03.870 00:25:03.880 the petrochemical industry for for light
00:25:05.730 00:25:05.740 feedstock for sure
00:25:08.390 00:25:08.400 looking at ammonia as another example
00:25:11.220 00:25:11.230 within the primary chemical production
00:25:13.020 00:25:13.030 then natural gas still remains the the
00:25:18.540 00:25:18.550 major fistic and it really observes the
00:25:21.240 00:25:21.250 majority of the growth in terms of new
00:25:23.460 00:25:23.470 capacity additions that we see in dark
00:25:27.390 00:25:27.400 blue you can see the use of coal
00:25:29.120 00:25:29.130 especially in China which is shown in
00:25:31.560 00:25:31.570 the asia-pacific graph and as you can
00:25:33.960 00:25:33.970 see this stagnates over time with the
00:25:36.060 00:25:36.070 capacity additions reinvesting being
00:25:38.340 00:25:38.350 based on on gas and with that we are
00:25:42.600 00:25:42.610 gonna start this section around the
00:25:44.460 00:25:44.470 alternative future that we'll also
00:25:46.920 00:25:46.930 explore and I'm going to give the the
00:25:48.810 00:25:48.820 floor to my colleague pizza divine that
00:25:50.790 00:25:50.800 also participated very intensively in
00:25:53.160 00:25:53.170 the report and it's one of the coffers
00:25:54.800 00:25:54.810 Thank You Araceli and and as Araceli
00:25:58.050 00:25:58.060 said there I'm going to go through an
00:25:59.550 00:25:59.560 alternative more sustainable path way
00:26:02.130 00:26:02.140 that the petrochemical sector can can
00:26:04.560 00:26:04.570 follow and we call this the clean
00:26:05.760 00:26:05.770 technology scenarios or the CTS relative
00:26:09.180 00:26:09.190 to the base scenario the reference
00:26:11.490 00:26:11.500 technology scenario or RTS the CTS is
00:26:14.790 00:26:14.800 quite a different approach that we take
00:26:17.030 00:26:17.040 instead of projecting forward current
00:26:19.560 00:26:19.570 trends we work backwards from where we
00:26:21.720 00:26:21.730 want to get to and where we want to get
00:26:25.230 00:26:25.240 to is a more sustainable chemical
00:26:26.880 00:26:26.890 industry and one that can continue
00:26:29.010 00:26:29.020 supplying its products to the world
00:26:30.360 00:26:30.370 whilst addressing several environmental
00:26:32.460 00:26:32.470 challenges including aspects of the
00:26:34.950 00:26:34.960 United Nations sustainable development
00:26:36.960 00:26:36.970 goals sorry and add the sustainable
00:26:42.660 00:26:42.670 development goals of the UN
00:26:44.490 00:26:44.500 some of them are more obviously relevant
00:26:46.500 00:26:46.510 to the I
00:26:47.170 00:26:47.180 ASD g7 concerning renewable energy and
00:26:50.230 00:26:50.240 SG 13 of climate action are obvious ones
00:26:53.620 00:26:53.630 for us to consider in analyses given
00:26:56.440 00:26:56.450 that remit and energy and the energy
00:26:59.140 00:26:59.150 sector accounting for the majority of
00:27:01.140 00:27:01.150 anthropogenic co2 emissions but we also
00:27:04.240 00:27:04.250 wanted to cast the net a bit wider
00:27:05.700 00:27:05.710 following the principles of the IEA
00:27:08.470 00:27:08.480 sustainable development scenario and
00:27:10.360 00:27:10.370 adopt a broader definition of
00:27:12.190 00:27:12.200 sustainability in this analysis that
00:27:14.980 00:27:14.990 translates into the consideration of air
00:27:16.930 00:27:16.940 pollutants water pollutants and water
00:27:18.970 00:27:18.980 demand sorry and and in the clean
00:27:25.540 00:27:25.550 technology scenario these environmental
00:27:28.060 00:27:28.070 impacts add dramatically decrease air
00:27:31.000 00:27:31.010 pollution decreases by around 85% water
00:27:33.790 00:27:33.800 pollutants by more than 90 percent and
00:27:35.710 00:27:35.720 co2 emissions of forty five percent
00:27:37.240 00:27:37.250 lower than nail today the next few
00:27:40.600 00:27:40.610 slides take a closer look at this
00:27:42.130 00:27:42.140 scenario and what needs to be done to
00:27:43.720 00:27:43.730 facilitate these obvious environmental
00:27:46.240 00:27:46.250 benefits so the first element of context
00:27:51.100 00:27:51.110 to look at in the CTS is demand for
00:27:52.720 00:27:52.730 primary chemicals and the role of
00:27:54.370 00:27:54.380 recycling in reducing the demand for
00:27:57.520 00:27:57.530 virgin production and Devon demand for
00:28:01.750 00:28:01.760 plastics can be satisfied either by
00:28:03.390 00:28:03.400 primary production and through oil and
00:28:06.100 00:28:06.110 gas or by recycling and reusing plastic
00:28:08.590 00:28:08.600 products found in waste streams a so
00:28:12.160 00:28:12.170 called secondary production the purple
00:28:15.700 00:28:15.710 bars on this graph and the gray one for
00:28:18.100 00:28:18.110 2017 and show the amount of plastic
00:28:21.910 00:28:21.920 produced by secondary production and in
00:28:25.210 00:28:25.220 the CTS and the blue bars show the RTS
00:28:28.420 00:28:28.430 values and the red dots show that the
00:28:33.790 00:28:33.800 average resin recycling rates for all
00:28:37.150 00:28:37.160 resins globally and the ranges within
00:28:39.310 00:28:39.320 those for each region and and finally
00:28:42.910 00:28:42.920 the green bars on the right show the
00:28:44.410 00:28:44.420 primary chemical savings that are
00:28:46.120 00:28:46.130 derived from this dramatic increase in
00:28:48.490 00:28:48.500 recycling that takes place in the CTS
00:28:50.550 00:28:50.560 collection rates in the CGS for plastic
00:28:53.020 00:28:53.030 recycling more than tripled between 2017
00:28:55.090 00:28:55.100 and 2050 during nearly tripled between
00:28:57.370 00:28:57.380 2017 and 2050 and this results in around
00:29:00.070 00:29:00.080 70 million
00:29:00.890 00:29:00.900 tons of primary chemical savings and/or
00:29:03.470 00:29:03.480 around half of today's plastic Korean
00:29:05.180 00:29:05.190 production being taken place by via
00:29:08.090 00:29:08.100 secondary routes so having touched on
00:29:10.850 00:29:10.860 this demand context and recycling I
00:29:13.040 00:29:13.050 wanted to just pass back titanium to go
00:29:16.070 00:29:16.080 through the broader context of oil
00:29:17.450 00:29:17.460 demand in the CGS thanks Peter
00:29:22.210 00:29:22.220 classically cycling has also impact on
00:29:25.700 00:29:25.710 oil demand for petrochemical feedstock
00:29:27.910 00:29:27.920 higher recycling in the CTS reduced oil
00:29:31.610 00:29:31.620 demand for Peter stop by around 2.4
00:29:34.280 00:29:34.290 million barrels per day by 2050 however
00:29:37.880 00:29:37.890 with this reduction oil demand for
00:29:41.060 00:29:41.070 chemical feedstock still grows by 3.6
00:29:44.390 00:29:44.400 million barrels per day in this scenario
00:29:46.520 00:29:46.530 by 2050
00:29:47.630 00:29:47.640 in fact the share of chemical feedstock
00:29:50.870 00:29:50.880 in total demand in the city s is much
00:29:53.480 00:29:53.490 higher than in the RTS this is because
00:29:57.980 00:29:57.990 oil demand for other sectors such as
00:30:00.410 00:30:00.420 transport decreased quite a lot in this
00:30:02.660 00:30:02.670 scenario why petrochemicals keep on
00:30:05.300 00:30:05.310 growing
00:30:05.950 00:30:05.960 so by 2050 petrochemicals account for
00:30:10.130 00:30:10.140 almost 26% of global total much higher
00:30:13.790 00:30:13.800 than the 16% in ideas this changing
00:30:18.890 00:30:18.900 sectoral oil demand prospect also have
00:30:21.410 00:30:21.420 an impact on the composition of demand
00:30:24.110 00:30:24.120 for individual oil product in this
00:30:26.900 00:30:26.910 scenario there is a Peter bishops
00:30:29.090 00:30:29.100 document toward the writer product such
00:30:31.580 00:30:31.590 as NASA or LPG this causes challenges
00:30:35.570 00:30:35.580 for Pyro's meaning this new demand
00:30:39.080 00:30:39.090 pattern is not easy because many of the
00:30:42.380 00:30:42.390 refining facilities are equipped to
00:30:44.330 00:30:44.340 produce a broad range of product not
00:30:46.850 00:30:46.860 just like the product may be processing
00:30:50.060 00:30:50.070 more lighter crude could be a starting
00:30:52.040 00:30:52.050 point to address these challenges and
00:30:54.400 00:30:54.410 deeper refining and petrochemical
00:30:56.890 00:30:56.900 integration can gain more prominence in
00:31:00.470 00:31:00.480 this type of scenario could lead to
00:31:03.350 00:31:03.360 chemical project is an example of a
00:31:05.540 00:31:05.550 technology that may be adapted more in
00:31:07.850 00:31:07.860 this context
00:31:11.190 00:31:11.200 let me just reinforce the new weird many
00:31:14.550 00:31:14.560 dynamics with an interesting finding
00:31:16.410 00:31:16.420 from our CTS energies here we have some
00:31:21.390 00:31:21.400 regional per capita figure who oil
00:31:23.940 00:31:23.950 demand to load passenger transport and
00:31:25.950 00:31:25.960 for plastic consumption today in the
00:31:29.550 00:31:29.560 United States and the European Union or
00:31:31.910 00:31:31.920 capitalism and for load passenger
00:31:33.960 00:31:33.970 transport is between two to five times
00:31:36.210 00:31:36.220 as much as four plastic consumption in
00:31:39.510 00:31:39.520 China in India the ratio is smaller but
00:31:42.900 00:31:42.910 still load passenger transport still
00:31:45.630 00:31:45.640 eclipsed plastic consumption an
00:31:49.250 00:31:49.260 interesting picture of the CPS is in all
00:31:52.830 00:31:52.840 these regions per capita oil demand
00:31:55.560 00:31:55.570 plastic consumption over tapes that Co
00:31:58.740 00:31:58.750 passenger transport by 2050
00:32:01.520 00:32:01.530 petrochemicals therefore becomes the
00:32:04.140 00:32:04.150 largest sector of oil demand by 2050 in
00:32:07.590 00:32:07.600 this scenario this contrasting petals
00:32:11.130 00:32:11.140 growing plastic meant only one end and
00:32:13.490 00:32:13.500 declining transport demand on the other
00:32:16.050 00:32:16.060 hand does not bode well with today's
00:32:18.990 00:32:19.000 refining with these models the finest
00:32:21.900 00:32:21.910 used on repeat by selling transporters
00:32:24.480 00:32:24.490 and in many cases they make losses by
00:32:27.390 00:32:27.400 selling petrochemical Podesta however
00:32:30.300 00:32:30.310 this traditional petrol may knock wood
00:32:33.180 00:32:33.190 in this type of scenario requiring
00:32:36.570 00:32:36.580 refiners to find a new operational model
00:32:39.300 00:32:39.310 a new market environment now my
00:32:42.270 00:32:42.280 colleagues here will explain some of the
00:32:44.370 00:32:44.380 possible measures to reduce emissions in
00:32:46.500 00:32:46.510 chemical sector thanks time so despite
00:32:52.110 00:32:52.120 the continuing oil graphs that tell you
00:32:55.500 00:32:55.510 in outline there and emissions declined
00:32:58.140 00:32:58.150 by about 5% in the CTS by 2050
00:33:01.760 00:33:01.770 relative to today's levels and this
00:33:08.340 00:33:08.350 represents a 60 percent decline relative
00:33:10.170 00:33:10.180 to the RTS in 2050 or 25% cumulative
00:33:13.980 00:33:13.990 reduction over the analysis period
00:33:16.310 00:33:16.320 how can world demand keep rising while
00:33:18.810 00:33:18.820 emissions undergo rapid declines I might
00:33:21.630 00:33:21.640 hear you ask one one reason is the
00:33:23.910 00:33:23.920 consumption
00:33:24.540 00:33:24.550 as beach doc and as Araceli outlined in
00:33:27.720 00:33:27.730 the first section molecules of oil and
00:33:30.420 00:33:30.430 gas become embedded in the chemical
00:33:32.040 00:33:32.050 products and are released either
00:33:33.360 00:33:33.370 downstream or embedded more permanently
00:33:35.840 00:33:35.850 the remainder of the emissions
00:33:37.770 00:33:37.780 reductions that are achieved in the OTS
00:33:39.330 00:33:39.340 and are done so via a variety of leaders
00:33:42.270 00:33:42.280 levers so we've got I think I'll now
00:33:47.880 00:33:47.890 hide Rider an overview of these of the
00:33:50.010 00:33:50.020 main categories of these we've grouped
00:33:52.170 00:33:52.180 the emissions reductions that take place
00:33:53.700 00:33:53.710 in the CGS under five categories CC us
00:33:57.030 00:33:57.040 coal to natural gas B deducts energy
00:34:00.150 00:34:00.160 efficiency plastic recycling and the use
00:34:02.670 00:34:02.680 of alternative feedstocks CC us does the
00:34:06.150 00:34:06.160 heavy lifting in the in the on the
00:34:08.010 00:34:08.020 emissions front and the chemical sector
00:34:09.960 00:34:09.970 this is because the chemical sector
00:34:11.490 00:34:11.500 resident represents some of the lowest
00:34:13.200 00:34:13.210 cost options for CC us in the energy
00:34:15.210 00:34:15.220 system and it's hard for alternative
00:34:17.460 00:34:17.470 feedstocks such as bio energy and
00:34:19.020 00:34:19.030 renewable hydrogen to compete with this
00:34:20.669 00:34:20.679 technology in most regions energy
00:34:23.430 00:34:23.440 efficiency both from a continuous
00:34:25.530 00:34:25.540 process energy intensity improvement
00:34:27.240 00:34:27.250 point of view and because of shifts have
00:34:29.580 00:34:29.590 fundamentally more efficient process
00:34:30.960 00:34:30.970 routes this lever delivers around a
00:34:33.780 00:34:33.790 quarter of emission savings in the CTS
00:34:35.669 00:34:35.679 relative to the RTS call to get natural
00:34:39.450 00:34:39.460 gas feedstock shifts account for another
00:34:41.070 00:34:41.080 quarter and this mainly relates to the
00:34:43.830 00:34:43.840 large coal based chemical industry in
00:34:45.570 00:34:45.580 China which continued to evolve in the
00:34:48.000 00:34:48.010 RCS that is dramatically shifted towards
00:34:51.720 00:34:51.730 gas and some CCS in these in the CGS
00:34:56.210 00:34:56.220 ambitious increases in recycling deliver
00:34:58.920 00:34:58.930 comparatively few savings but are still
00:35:01.470 00:35:01.480 an important component of the CGS for
00:35:03.300 00:35:03.310 other reasons that I'll come back to in
00:35:04.860 00:35:04.870 a couple of slides time and and just to
00:35:07.980 00:35:07.990 highlight that of course more details
00:35:09.450 00:35:09.460 much more details all of these levers
00:35:11.640 00:35:11.650 can be found in the report just to zoom
00:35:16.170 00:35:16.180 in on the CC us context and the chemical
00:35:21.330 00:35:21.340 sector
00:35:21.720 00:35:21.730 hosts them and the well host the largest
00:35:24.360 00:35:24.370 CCU application in the world by far at
00:35:26.850 00:35:26.860 the moment which is that and co2 being
00:35:29.640 00:35:29.650 used as a feedstock for urea and this
00:35:31.620 00:35:31.630 co2 is usually sourced from the
00:35:33.570 00:35:33.580 concentrated co2 streams that leave
00:35:36.090 00:35:36.100 ammonia
00:35:37.390 00:35:37.400 and facilities and while this only
00:35:39.880 00:35:39.890 represents a temporary storage of co2 as
00:35:42.880 00:35:42.890 it's released when your reer decomposes
00:35:45.100 00:35:45.110 in the agriculture sector it's still an
00:35:47.290 00:35:47.300 important consideration in the modeling
00:35:48.910 00:35:48.920 because we need to take account of that
00:35:50.830 00:35:50.840 co2 that can no longer be captured for
00:35:53.200 00:35:53.210 permanent storage in the current
00:35:54.700 00:35:54.710 structure by 2050 though in capture for
00:35:58.480 00:35:58.490 permanent storage over take CTU without
00:36:01.840 00:36:01.850 around 220 megatons of co2 being
00:36:04.630 00:36:04.640 captured annually from a mixture of
00:36:06.490 00:36:06.500 concentrated and daily streams and this
00:36:10.090 00:36:10.100 together with the utilized emissions
00:36:11.860 00:36:11.870 means that around 35% of emissions
00:36:14.050 00:36:14.060 generated in the secretary are being
00:36:15.430 00:36:15.440 either captured or utilized in the CTS
00:36:18.310 00:36:18.320 by 2050 now once it is come to one of
00:36:25.210 00:36:25.220 the key environmental problems that is
00:36:27.640 00:36:27.650 garnering a lot of attention around the
00:36:28.900 00:36:28.910 world at the moment and that's plastic
00:36:30.520 00:36:30.530 waste leakage into the world's seas and
00:36:32.590 00:36:32.600 oceans and this graph shows the
00:36:35.340 00:36:35.350 cumulative and annual plastic waste
00:36:37.870 00:36:37.880 leakage in each of our scenarios and and
00:36:40.720 00:36:40.730 just to provide a bit of background on
00:36:42.520 00:36:42.530 this topic for those of you who are and
00:36:45.300 00:36:45.310 interested when supposed of improperly
00:36:48.040 00:36:48.050 plastic products can any and they do
00:36:50.530 00:36:50.540 currently make their way into waterways
00:36:52.180 00:36:52.190 and eventually into the ocean when they
00:36:54.340 00:36:54.350 are broken down into small plastics by
00:36:56.350 00:36:56.360 small micro plastics by sunlight and
00:36:58.660 00:36:58.670 mini fish and other animals can mistake
00:37:01.360 00:37:01.370 them for food and ingest them in the RTS
00:37:04.510 00:37:04.520 and our base scenario with no firm and
00:37:06.940 00:37:06.950 globally coordinated commitments to
00:37:09.100 00:37:09.110 reform poor or non-existent waste
00:37:10.900 00:37:10.910 management practices in many countries
00:37:12.570 00:37:12.580 cumulative volumes of plastic waste in
00:37:14.830 00:37:14.840 the world's ocean increase a tenfold and
00:37:17.340 00:37:17.350 and this tracks the grossing in plastic
00:37:20.740 00:37:20.750 production in the CCS however the rapid
00:37:23.590 00:37:23.600 and broad-based improvements across the
00:37:25.330 00:37:25.340 globe in waste management to facilitate
00:37:27.490 00:37:27.500 a near tripling and recycling collection
00:37:29.290 00:37:29.300 rates and this lays the groundwork for
00:37:31.600 00:37:31.610 more than having cumulative ocean bound
00:37:33.730 00:37:33.740 plastic waste relative to the RTS and
00:37:36.780 00:37:36.790 this does not take into account any
00:37:39.270 00:37:39.280 effort to remove plastic waste from the
00:37:41.830 00:37:41.840 ocean once it has entered and many of
00:37:45.280 00:37:45.290 which is currently being looked at and
00:37:47.110 00:37:47.120 will likely be needed to come
00:37:49.630 00:37:49.640 these efforts in the future now we'd
00:37:55.180 00:37:55.190 like to look at the investment side of
00:37:57.700 00:37:57.710 the coin for the ggs and our analysis of
00:38:01.150 00:38:01.160 this topic was focused on primary
00:38:04.779 00:38:04.789 chemical production and it shows that
00:38:06.279 00:38:06.289 the CTS can be pursued cost-effectively
00:38:09.130 00:38:09.140 from cost-effectively from an investment
00:38:10.990 00:38:11.000 standpoint and recycling and coal to gas
00:38:14.200 00:38:14.210 feedstock shifts are two components that
00:38:17.349 00:38:17.359 provide savings in the CTS and this is
00:38:21.609 00:38:21.619 this recycling because lower levels of
00:38:24.700 00:38:24.710 primary chemical production avoids the
00:38:26.920 00:38:26.930 need for the construction of several
00:38:28.690 00:38:28.700 expensive steam crackers and other
00:38:30.250 00:38:30.260 equipment in the sector and then
00:38:33.029 00:38:33.039 processes that utilize a lighter feeds
00:38:35.740 00:38:35.750 off than coal not a solid feedstock tend
00:38:38.109 00:38:38.119 to be less capital intensive and these
00:38:40.779 00:38:40.789 both both of these aspects of the
00:38:43.359 00:38:43.369 scenario provides savings that more than
00:38:46.120 00:38:46.130 offset the added investments needed for
00:38:49.269 00:38:49.279 carbon capture and alternative feedstock
00:38:51.900 00:38:51.910 processing equipment overall the
00:38:54.940 00:38:54.950 cumulative investment in the CTS is
00:38:56.890 00:38:56.900 around two hundred billion less than in
00:38:58.809 00:38:58.819 the RTS and now I'd like to move to a an
00:39:15.670 00:39:15.680 analysis that we did on the side of the
00:39:18.339 00:39:18.349 CTS and we call it from beyond the CTS
00:39:20.980 00:39:20.990 but it's it's not part of our scenario
00:39:22.980 00:39:22.990 scenario results and and it's more of a
00:39:27.940 00:39:27.950 what-if analysis that we performed for a
00:39:29.980 00:39:29.990 primary chemical production so if we
00:39:34.210 00:39:34.220 wanted to ask whether if feedstocks were
00:39:36.130 00:39:36.140 produced from a carbon neutral energy
00:39:37.599 00:39:37.609 source and what would the benefits be
00:39:40.089 00:39:40.099 and what would the resultant
00:39:43.259 00:39:43.269 implications be for the for the energy
00:39:45.460 00:39:45.470 system and and the benefits are that you
00:39:49.059 00:39:49.069 can eliminate some of the downstream
00:39:50.440 00:39:50.450 emissions that came into talked about
00:39:52.690 00:39:52.700 and that results when the molecules will
00:39:56.109 00:39:56.119 and gas in the products are released via
00:39:58.599 00:39:58.609 some form of use or disposal technique
00:40:02.430 00:40:02.440 and and the other thing is that fossil
00:40:06.030 00:40:06.040 fuels theoretically by these pathways
00:40:08.250 00:40:08.260 can be removed from the sector all
00:40:09.780 00:40:09.790 together and firstly we listed a
00:40:12.510 00:40:12.520 bioenergy only pathway and and we dis
00:40:17.339 00:40:17.349 entails producing ammonia and methyl a
00:40:19.109 00:40:19.119 methanol and ethylene directly from
00:40:21.089 00:40:21.099 biomass ethylene in Evelyn's case this
00:40:23.940 00:40:23.950 would be from bio ethanol with propylene
00:40:26.130 00:40:26.140 and aromatics being produced by a
00:40:27.780 00:40:27.790 methanol to olefin and methanol to
00:40:29.490 00:40:29.500 aromatics processes second we looked at
00:40:32.250 00:40:32.260 an electricity only pathway which
00:40:33.990 00:40:34.000 entails producing ammonia and methanol
00:40:36.569 00:40:36.579 directly by our electrolysis and then
00:40:38.819 00:40:38.829 olefins and aromatics all olefins and
00:40:41.099 00:40:41.109 aromatics via methanol via MTO and MTA
00:40:45.260 00:40:45.270 the results are stuck and by 2050 the
00:40:48.569 00:40:48.579 bioenergy pathway requires nearly eight
00:40:50.730 00:40:50.740 times the bio energy demand for all
00:40:52.530 00:40:52.540 industry in a similar low-carbon pathway
00:40:54.930 00:40:54.940 in the electricity pathway the demand
00:40:57.300 00:40:57.310 for electricity exceeds that for all
00:40:59.190 00:40:59.200 industry by 25 percent again in a
00:41:01.710 00:41:01.720 similar low-carbon pathway by 2050 this
00:41:05.160 00:41:05.170 is significant as industry as a large
00:41:07.859 00:41:07.869 electricity consumer as you know these
00:41:11.099 00:41:11.109 figures are all even higher when
00:41:12.300 00:41:12.310 chemicals produced in refineries
00:41:13.589 00:41:13.599 included as in such a world it is
00:41:16.290 00:41:16.300 questionable as to whether refineries
00:41:17.730 00:41:17.740 would be playing exactly the same role
00:41:20.270 00:41:20.280 there are other challenges of these
00:41:22.319 00:41:22.329 pathways such as increased water demand
00:41:24.599 00:41:24.609 and where the carbon source comes from
00:41:27.510 00:41:27.520 for the electricity pathway and for
00:41:29.700 00:41:29.710 methanol but this is explored in more
00:41:32.220 00:41:32.230 detail in the in the report I would like
00:41:39.900 00:41:39.910 to finish by describing the and the
00:41:43.770 00:41:43.780 policy recommendations that we came to
00:41:46.500 00:41:46.510 in the CTS the top 10 among our various
00:41:49.440 00:41:49.450 policy aspects that we discussed in the
00:41:51.540 00:41:51.550 report and because the CGS won't come by
00:41:54.420 00:41:54.430 had come about by itself and it will
00:41:56.849 00:41:56.859 need to support from a variety of
00:41:58.140 00:41:58.150 stakeholders across the value chain
00:41:59.640 00:41:59.650 we've divided our policy recommendations
00:42:02.280 00:42:02.290 into two categories firstly those
00:42:04.319 00:42:04.329 related to the production of chemicals
00:42:05.970 00:42:05.980 and secondly those related to the use
00:42:08.430 00:42:08.440 and disposal of chemical products and so
00:42:10.950 00:42:10.960 the first recommendation that you have
00:42:12.599 00:42:12.609 here and is associated with production
00:42:14.910 00:42:14.920 and it's
00:42:16.350 00:42:16.360 directly stimulate R&D of sustainable
00:42:19.950 00:42:19.960 chemic chemical production routes and
00:42:21.450 00:42:21.460 limit associated risks with these with
00:42:24.390 00:42:24.400 these R&D projects and as an example
00:42:27.150 00:42:27.160 this would be providing direct research
00:42:28.980 00:42:28.990 funding or providing low-interest loans
00:42:31.230 00:42:31.240 for demonstration products projection F
00:42:34.290 00:42:34.300 so it projects and making the
00:42:37.140 00:42:37.150 environment generally lower risk to
00:42:39.840 00:42:39.850 carry out new ideas and best to get new
00:42:41.880 00:42:41.890 ideas the second is to encourage robust
00:42:44.700 00:42:44.710 benchmarking schemes for energy
00:42:46.170 00:42:46.180 performance and emissions and the
00:42:48.210 00:42:48.220 remaining three related recommendations
00:42:51.870 00:42:51.880 that apply to the energy system more
00:42:53.430 00:42:53.440 broadly CX is doing effective regulatory
00:42:57.690 00:42:57.700 actions to limit dat emission and
00:43:00.200 00:43:00.210 regulating and enforcing stringent air
00:43:02.460 00:43:02.470 quality standards and eliminating
00:43:05.310 00:43:05.320 mechanisms that skew the market value of
00:43:07.380 00:43:07.390 fuels including those that fail to
00:43:09.480 00:43:09.490 represent exit analysis the second set
00:43:15.300 00:43:15.310 of policy recommendations is five of our
00:43:18.630 00:43:18.640 top ten and relate to the use and
00:43:21.720 00:43:21.730 disposal phases of chemical products so
00:43:24.690 00:43:24.700 they are firstly to reduce our reliance
00:43:26.400 00:43:26.410 on single-use plastics other than for
00:43:28.470 00:43:28.480 non substitutable functions and improve
00:43:31.980 00:43:31.990 waste management practices around the
00:43:33.660 00:43:33.670 world raise consumer awareness consumer
00:43:37.650 00:43:37.660 awareness about the multiple benefits of
00:43:39.420 00:43:39.430 recycling and encourage designers to
00:43:41.730 00:43:41.740 deal with better products that take into
00:43:43.200 00:43:43.210 account the disposal phase of the
00:43:45.330 00:43:45.340 product of at the end of its life and
00:43:47.540 00:43:47.550 finally pursue schemes that extend
00:43:50.190 00:43:50.200 producer responsibility beyond the
00:43:53.220 00:43:53.230 production site and with that I'd like
00:43:56.550 00:43:56.560 to hand back to our director max Hilde
00:43:58.470 00:43:58.480 to close the presentation thank you and
00:44:01.770 00:44:01.780 thank you all I think you had a chance
00:44:04.200 00:44:04.210 to get the main features and the main
00:44:07.170 00:44:07.180 and Adi analytical work explained in the
00:44:10.320 00:44:10.330 slide front by the colleagues so let me
00:44:13.020 00:44:13.030 just summarize and maybe draw some
00:44:15.090 00:44:15.100 conclusions of that what we call the
00:44:18.360 00:44:18.370 appliance pots and shining some light on
00:44:21.570 00:44:21.580 that blind spot which i think is a
00:44:24.180 00:44:24.190 really very important and well done work
00:44:27.090 00:44:27.100 so first of all pet
00:44:29.829 00:44:29.839 chemical products are deeply embedded in
00:44:32.799 00:44:32.809 our everyday lives they will also play a
00:44:35.890 00:44:35.900 key role in many components of the
00:44:38.259 00:44:38.269 energy transition like on wind turbines
00:44:40.779 00:44:40.789 and solar and others so they have a key
00:44:43.930 00:44:43.940 role to play also in the future secondly
00:44:48.279 00:44:48.289 as the second conclusion petrochemicals
00:44:51.640 00:44:51.650 are the largest driver of global oil
00:44:54.099 00:44:54.109 consumption in the future accounting for
00:44:57.579 00:44:57.589 more than a third of the growth to 2030
00:45:00.579 00:45:00.589 and nearly half to 2050 the main players
00:45:06.400 00:45:06.410 in that game are the China the United
00:45:10.719 00:45:10.729 States and the Middle East who are
00:45:13.420 00:45:13.430 leading the growth in the petrochemicals
00:45:15.930 00:45:15.940 production and as you also saw as one of
00:45:21.309 00:45:21.319 the conclusion the production use and
00:45:24.789 00:45:24.799 disposal of chemicals take an
00:45:27.339 00:45:27.349 environmental toll but achievable and
00:45:30.309 00:45:30.319 cost effective steps can be taken to
00:45:33.160 00:45:33.170 make these more sustainable and I think
00:45:35.559 00:45:35.569 that was well explained in the scenario
00:45:39.009 00:45:39.019 in the sustainable scenario and my last
00:45:42.549 00:45:42.559 conclusion is that analysis of this
00:45:46.150 00:45:46.160 energy blind spots goes hand-in-hand
00:45:49.089 00:45:49.099 with the IEA a general policy on opening
00:45:52.959 00:45:52.969 a doors to global engagement so there
00:45:56.170 00:45:56.180 will be more to come after we already
00:45:58.809 00:45:58.819 had a look at the trucks air
00:46:00.579 00:46:00.589 conditioners modern bioenergy and now
00:46:03.549 00:46:03.559 the petrochemical which is a key key one
00:46:05.859 00:46:05.869 so more will come with that I think you
00:46:08.890 00:46:08.900 can conclude our presentation and we
00:46:12.099 00:46:12.109 have 15 minutes left if you have any
00:46:14.769 00:46:14.779 questions and the team is here to
00:46:17.489 00:46:17.499 hopefully can answer all of the
00:46:19.930 00:46:19.940 questions thank you legend so now that
00:46:27.519 00:46:27.529 the floor is open for questions they're
00:46:29.469 00:46:29.479 receiving questions to the through the
00:46:31.359 00:46:31.369 webinar software so feel free to send
00:46:33.880 00:46:33.890 those we'll try to address all of these
00:46:36.609 00:46:36.619 in the remaining time that we have and
00:46:39.210 00:46:39.220 in any case all of those gets recorded
00:46:41.940 00:46:41.950 and will be able to respond back to you
00:46:44.100 00:46:44.110 by email if we ran out of time I just
00:46:47.640 00:46:47.650 wanted to read to confirm you as well
00:46:50.130 00:46:50.140 that this session is being recorded
00:46:51.960 00:46:51.970 so we'll we'll make it available on the
00:46:54.030 00:46:54.040 website as well together with the rest
00:46:56.100 00:46:56.110 of materials related to the to the
00:46:58.680 00:46:58.690 reports on the ia website seems this
00:47:03.240 00:47:03.250 myth nice you could find the press
00:47:05.790 00:47:05.800 release the main reports and some mini
00:47:09.270 00:47:09.280 extracts as the secretary summary and
00:47:11.820 00:47:11.830 some of the some visual information on
00:47:14.040 00:47:14.050 the key findings as well the executive
00:47:16.620 00:47:16.630 summary is a bi-level also in Chinese
00:47:19.200 00:47:19.210 and Arabic for for stakeholders to
00:47:22.680 00:47:22.690 consult this and from today onwards
00:47:25.380 00:47:25.390 we'll start a Rosh Hashanah
00:47:27.420 00:47:27.430 that's a dissemination program to visit
00:47:30.540 00:47:30.550 different regions and engage with
00:47:33.510 00:47:33.520 stakeholders around around the world as
00:47:37.740 00:47:37.750 much as we can renting from government
00:47:40.530 00:47:40.540 industries and also Richards
00:47:41.910 00:47:41.920 associations so please contact us if you
00:47:44.970 00:47:44.980 are interested in learning more about
00:47:47.040 00:47:47.050 this this ro show and if there are
00:47:48.900 00:47:48.910 opportunities that do you think would be
00:47:52.080 00:47:52.090 worth while exploring which and what we
00:47:54.090 00:47:54.100 have already planned and with with that
00:47:57.900 00:47:57.910 i'ma just a service plan is among the of
00:48:00.330 00:48:00.340 the questions when the first once we've
00:48:03.960 00:48:03.970 received was related to the use of co2
00:48:07.410 00:48:07.420 for urea so the question was when
00:48:11.370 00:48:11.380 utilized in waste co2 for urea
00:48:13.500 00:48:13.510 production did you consider the end-user
00:48:15.420 00:48:15.430 missions where the spheres who
00:48:17.340 00:48:17.350 eventually is emitted anyway it is
00:48:19.560 00:48:19.570 important distinction in co2 account and
00:48:22.850 00:48:22.860 accountability and so so yes we we
00:48:27.000 00:48:27.010 explore this area there is a specific
00:48:28.770 00:48:28.780 section in the report looking at
00:48:31.040 00:48:31.050 downstream emissions from the chemical
00:48:33.510 00:48:33.520 sector and especially on this value
00:48:35.970 00:48:35.980 chain that it was mentioned so how some
00:48:39.870 00:48:39.880 of the emissions generated in the Monier
00:48:42.000 00:48:42.010 production are used as feedstock for
00:48:43.860 00:48:43.870 urea production which then leads into
00:48:46.140 00:48:46.150 some nitrogen based fertilizers that
00:48:49.470 00:48:49.480 when they are you
00:48:51.190 00:48:51.200 and hydrated in dairy culture sector
00:48:53.170 00:48:53.180 than as a consequence that you to get
00:48:56.289 00:48:56.299 released back so there's some there's
00:48:58.900 00:48:58.910 little information on that and
00:49:00.190 00:49:00.200 discussion in the report I in terms of
00:49:02.859 00:49:02.869 accountability certainly we think that
00:49:05.200 00:49:05.210 into account at the energy system level
00:49:07.240 00:49:07.250 and when we have reported figures today
00:49:10.690 00:49:10.700 around the co2 emissions related to the
00:49:14.230 00:49:14.240 chemical sector we were referring to one
00:49:16.480 00:49:16.490 or direct co2 emissions and that those
00:49:19.180 00:49:19.190 would exclude those co2 emissions for
00:49:20.980 00:49:20.990 instance that would be releasing the in
00:49:23.710 00:49:23.720 the use phase of this product but
00:49:25.539 00:49:25.549 certainly those are accounted in the
00:49:27.190 00:49:27.200 whole let's say context of the system
00:49:30.010 00:49:30.020 level when in the trash showing the cost
00:49:47.380 00:49:47.390 of Pitkin production and entry or
00:49:50.170 00:49:50.180 methanol to olefin based was shown as
00:49:53.079 00:49:53.089 the cheaper than nasa based chemicals
00:49:55.000 00:49:55.010 that is taken to account the cost of
00:49:57.370 00:49:57.380 converting coal or natural gas into
00:49:59.289 00:49:59.299 methanol as well so on that question the
00:50:07.329 00:50:07.339 the assumption about the feedstock is
00:50:09.460 00:50:09.470 the average price for methanol bought at
00:50:13.420 00:50:13.430 the merchant merchant methanol purchased
00:50:16.780 00:50:16.790 that year and used as a feedstock
00:50:19.319 00:50:19.329 directly so it wouldn't be their capex
00:50:21.579 00:50:21.589 of the of the methanol plant or anything
00:50:24.190 00:50:24.200 like that that's included just the the
00:50:25.930 00:50:25.940 end price market price for methanol
00:50:30.450 00:50:30.460 great
00:50:36.069 00:50:36.079 next question given massive problems
00:50:39.309 00:50:39.319 with disposal with incineration and with
00:50:42.789 00:50:42.799 energy recovery be a better option than
00:50:44.950 00:50:44.960 land field or other uncontrolled
00:50:47.230 00:50:47.240 disposal options certainly yes we have
00:50:52.660 00:50:52.670 an extensive discussion as well in the
00:50:54.430 00:50:54.440 report around different disposal options
00:50:57.849 00:50:57.859 for for plastic waste and certainly the
00:51:01.569 00:51:01.579 trend that we see in
00:51:03.609 00:51:03.619 countries that I put in a bit more
00:51:04.719 00:51:04.729 attention towards that moving towards
00:51:07.329 00:51:07.339 greater recycling and more use of
00:51:11.469 00:51:11.479 disgusting waste for energy recovery and
00:51:13.539 00:51:13.549 trying to minimize and release as much
00:51:15.489 00:51:15.499 as possible even banned in some cases
00:51:17.670 00:51:17.680 landfill in as an antenna it's just
00:51:21.309 00:51:21.319 certainly that's that the case as well
00:51:24.309 00:51:24.319 in in our every sort of our analysis to
00:51:28.859 00:51:28.869 and we've had a query to clarify an or
00:51:32.349 00:51:32.359 just to go into a bit more detail on the
00:51:33.910 00:51:33.920 graph on slide 34 and and this so just
00:51:39.099 00:51:39.109 to go by Marv I bar on this graph on the
00:51:42.239 00:51:42.249 2017 dark blue bar on the furthest left
00:51:45.549 00:51:45.559 of the diagram we have the current
00:51:48.640 00:51:48.650 feedstock and sorry we have the feed dog
00:51:52.749 00:51:52.759 and process energy consumption the
00:51:54.190 00:51:54.200 chemical settle provided by fossil fuels
00:51:56.529 00:51:56.539 today and and then we will in 2017 for
00:52:01.239 00:52:01.249 the bioenergy pathway and electricity
00:52:03.130 00:52:03.140 pathway this would be assessing the same
00:52:05.019 00:52:05.029 demand that either by a solely by a
00:52:07.719 00:52:07.729 bioenergy or by electricity and and this
00:52:11.079 00:52:11.089 would be very including process energy
00:52:12.999 00:52:13.009 consumption and the dashed bars above
00:52:16.539 00:52:16.549 each of the colored bars orange and
00:52:20.319 00:52:20.329 green bars show add in the requirements
00:52:24.700 00:52:24.710 for producing all the chemicals that are
00:52:27.249 00:52:27.259 projected to be produced in refineries
00:52:29.410 00:52:29.420 and which the propylene and BTX that
00:52:33.519 00:52:33.529 currently comes from refineries we
00:52:34.900 00:52:34.910 project a portion of that will continue
00:52:37.269 00:52:37.279 to be provided by refineries and so
00:52:39.430 00:52:39.440 these - bars show the additional energy
00:52:42.249 00:52:42.259 requirements that would be required in
00:52:44.109 00:52:44.119 each pathway and were were these
00:52:47.200 00:52:47.210 scenarios to to take place now the
00:52:51.099 00:52:51.109 reason why do we do that is because we
00:52:52.690 00:52:52.700 see a world in which you know in this
00:52:56.229 00:52:56.239 scenario fossil fuels will get to be
00:52:57.969 00:52:57.979 completely phased out of being used as
00:53:00.039 00:53:00.049 food Sadat's then it would be unlikely
00:53:01.779 00:53:01.789 that refineries would be operating in
00:53:03.910 00:53:03.920 the same way I should stress that
00:53:05.680 00:53:05.690 although this graph takes its production
00:53:09.249 00:53:09.259 projections from the CTS
00:53:10.959 00:53:10.969 from the clean technologies - no it is
00:53:13.870 00:53:13.880 not part of the CGS this is a side very
00:53:17.040 00:53:17.050 analysis that we did a what-if question
00:53:19.290 00:53:19.300 if you like there's another question
00:53:23.460 00:53:23.470 around one mentioning what does it bars
00:53:26.520 00:53:26.530 assume that one on the rapture in the
00:53:29.010 00:53:29.020 various regions and the production of
00:53:31.260 00:53:31.270 petrochemicals and feedstock demand how
00:53:33.840 00:53:33.850 did you explain the sisters we manage
00:53:35.430 00:53:35.440 lower than production so I think in this
00:53:39.120 00:53:39.130 case it may be the fix that has been
00:53:48.840 00:53:48.850 shown in in MPA units with primary
00:53:52.350 00:53:52.360 chemical production has been shown in
00:53:53.790 00:53:53.800 megatons so the units are not comparable
00:53:57.930 00:53:57.940 directly and I mean that may be part of
00:54:01.410 00:54:01.420 the of the confusion there but those are
00:54:05.250 00:54:05.260 related to I mean are shown in different
00:54:07.890 00:54:07.900 units and another question is about
00:54:15.240 00:54:15.250 whether in electricity scenarios do we
00:54:18.000 00:54:18.010 consider the cost of capturing co2 I'm
00:54:22.950 00:54:22.960 not I'm not quite sure if that question
00:54:25.830 00:54:25.840 refers to have to the variant that the
00:54:28.620 00:54:28.630 what-if analysis that's better describes
00:54:30.750 00:54:30.760 around what would be the impact on
00:54:33.240 00:54:33.250 electricity Romantics primary chemical
00:54:35.040 00:54:35.050 collections are going to be completely
00:54:37.350 00:54:37.360 produced from electrolytic hydrogen and
00:54:40.700 00:54:40.710 in that case yeah I mean we basically
00:54:45.950 00:54:45.960 could assume in that type of assessment
00:54:49.050 00:54:49.060 that that electricity and that would be
00:54:51.540 00:54:51.550 demanded should come from renewable or
00:54:54.000 00:54:54.010 low carbon sources so to make the
00:54:56.520 00:54:56.530 fullest a sustainable gain from that
00:55:00.380 00:55:00.390 process with compared to other two other
00:55:02.790 00:55:02.800 alternatives and possibly if if the
00:55:05.160 00:55:05.170 question is in reference to the co2 it
00:55:07.200 00:55:07.210 will be required speed stock for
00:55:08.820 00:55:08.830 methanol and for the methanol is an
00:55:11.190 00:55:11.200 intermediate to olefins and aromatics
00:55:13.580 00:55:13.590 then notice this co2 would have to be
00:55:16.380 00:55:16.390 captured in other sectors and it would
00:55:19.080 00:55:19.090 have to be captured from other
00:55:21.690 00:55:21.700 industrial sectors if they were they
00:55:23.550 00:55:23.560 were not decarbonized by that point the
00:55:25.770 00:55:25.780 V we characterize in more detail the
00:55:27.990 00:55:28.000 both the co2 and water
00:55:30.440 00:55:30.450 so we will be required along these
00:55:32.329 00:55:32.339 alongside these feedstock and process
00:55:34.550 00:55:34.560 energy needs and so we we can look at
00:55:37.940 00:55:37.950 that in more detail in there in the
00:55:39.890 00:55:39.900 report spinner I think that there's no
00:55:47.480 00:55:47.490 more questions coming in from the moment
00:55:49.630 00:55:49.640 as if mentioned please feel free to get
00:55:52.790 00:55:52.800 in touch with us and send your questions
00:55:54.890 00:55:54.900 around we'll be happy to clarify those
00:55:57.230 00:55:57.240 by email or by phone and and yeah I
00:56:01.069 00:56:01.079 think take the chance maybe to close it
00:56:03.920 00:56:03.930 at this point to thank you all for your
00:56:05.990 00:56:06.000 for your participation and the support
00:56:08.300 00:56:08.310 for development of the project for those
00:56:10.970 00:56:10.980 that were involved and the tech my
00:56:13.250 00:56:13.260 colleagues as well and Michelle that's
00:56:14.839 00:56:14.849 kindly participated in this webinar as
00:56:19.010 00:56:19.020 well so thanks everyone and we hope to
00:56:21.680 00:56:21.690 see you soon
00:56:29.450 00:56:29.460 you
00:56:32.780 00:56:32.790
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